The study aims to know the impact of the exchange rate on the indicators of banking profitability with the introduction of the impact of the pandemic as a modified intermediate variable so as to expose all sectors and their activities to major problems as a result of the change in the exchange rate at the end of 2020 and the exposure of the world and Iraq in particular to the Corona pandemic at the beginning of 2020, forcing other countries to stop life as a global precautionary measure. The variable represented by the exchange rate (market rate) and the Corona pandemic (as a modified intermediate variable) and the approved variable represented by banking profitability with its indicators (return on assets and return on equity) and certain software such as EViews 12 and Excel were used for the period 2011-2021 and for four banks of companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange. After a series of calculations at the level of financial, statistical and standard analysis, the researcher concluded that the pandemic contributed significantly and to most of the follower’s indicators in strengthening the results of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the indicators of banking profitability and the researcher made his recommendation. It requires taking the issue of changing the market exchange rate into consideration in drawing up the policies of financing and investment banks in order not to expose these banks to exchange rate risks and the risks associated with them as a result and to ensure that it maintains its competitive and market position in it, in addition to that, interest in studying the problems of the times and epidemics that appear from time to time and matters related to the environment because they are problems that may be a result of human intervention in them and their consequences are great on all activities, including banking activity.
The exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of the economic stability of a country, which constitutes a vital role in the level of trade exchange in any country and it is extremely important for every economy in the world. For this reason, the country needs to re-evaluate the exchange rate of its currency against the exchange rate of other countries’ currencies periodically in order to measure strength own purchasing at the exchange rate of its currency. On the other hand, the study and analysis of the financial safety indicators of the commercial banking sector is also important because this sector is the most economic sector that is affected and affected by the exchange rate and its fluctuations, due to the primary role that this sector plays in the economy and the movement of money and business within the country. The banking system is the driver that stimulates economic efficiency through the multiple banking operations and services it provides to mobilize savings in investment channels to achieve economic growth in the country. In addition, exchange rate volatility negatively affects the performance of banks by affecting the behaviour and performance of depositors and borrowers through Uncertainty about the level of volatility of a currency's exchange rate.
Therefore, he took a number of resolute measures to limit the spread of the pandemic and intensified its efforts to ensure the proper functioning of the health and social care system and to protect the most vulnerable and affected groups. However, due to the outbreak of the pandemic, the uncertainty and weakness caused by the closures that affected most institutions, including commercial, banking and business establishments throughout the country and the imposition of restrictions on travel to contain the pandemic that caused economic effects, which resulted in a significant decrease in production, investment and profits, increased. In addition, the pandemic caused a drop in oil prices, which led to the instability of the economic situation inside the country, which depends almost entirely on oil imports to finance its operating budget. This led to an economic turmoil that affected the stability of the exchange rate and as a result the activity of the banking sector was affected, which in turn affected the results of banks’ business and their financial position.
Therefore, the question here is, to what extent do exchange rate fluctuations affect the profitability of the Iraqi banking sector in light of the Corona pandemic?. In line with the question raised and the purpose of the study, it was organized into four sections. In the first section, the study methodology was discussed, the second section represented the theoretical framework that explains the exchange rate, the factors affecting it and the profitability indicators used in banks and the third chapter was devoted to the practical side, which deals with the interpretation of the type. The relationship between the exchange rate and banking profitability indicators. The fourth and final chapter presents the most important conclusions and recommendations of the study reached by the researcher.
The Research Problem
The exchange rate is one of the most important pillars of economic growth and stability for countries because of its vital impact on service, investment and financial activities and trade exchanges at the local and international levels. Measuring the economic and competitive ability of a country. From this standpoint, crises occur from time to time at the local and global level and have different effects in all sectors, specifically the economic sector, by affecting the monetary system, such as fluctuations and instability in the exchange rate. Consequently, great losses occurred and this is what happened in the last global and most important event, which is the Corona pandemic. As this pandemic affected the economic sector as a whole, the monetary system in the country was affected, which led to instability and fluctuation in the exchange rate due to the state of uncertainty at the level of the local and global economy. In the occurrence of a glitch and reluctance and failure in its work. For the research problem lies in the following question:
What is the impact of fluctuations in the exchange rate on the profitability of Iraqi commercial banks in light of the Corona pandemic?
The Importance of Research
The importance lies in studying the currency exchange rate variable as it is one of the economic variables adopted in drawing up the fiscal and monetary policy, especially when the sample is private banks whose foreign transactions are governed through transfers.The importance of banking profitability indicators documented in the study is manifested in showing the realistic picture of the situation and the mechanism of work of Iraqi local commercial banks, for this reason these indicators are considered one of the financial analysis tools that are used in predicting the mechanism of movement and development of banks in the future, as well as showing the impact of the Corona pandemic on research variables.
The Purpose of the Research
This research aims to measure and analyse the impact of exchange rate fluctuations (market rate) on profitability in Iraqi commercial banks under the Corona pandemic for the period (2011-2021).
Research Hypotheses
The First Main Hypothesis: The effect of the exchange rate (market rate) on the indicators of banking profitability, from which the following hypotheses emerge:
The effect of the exchange rate (market rate) on the indicators of banking profitability, as measured by the rate of return on assets
The effect of the exchange rate (market rate) on the indicators of banking profitability, as measured by the rate of return on equity
The Second Main Hypothesis
The effect of the exchange rate (market rate) on the indicators of banking profitability in light of the Corona pandemic and the following hypotheses emerge from it:
The effect of the exchange rate (market rate) on banking profitability indicators, as measured by the rate of return on assets in light of the Corona pandemic
The effect of the exchange rate (market rate) on banking profitability indicators, as measured by the rate of return on equity in light of the Corona pandemic
Temporal and Spatial Boundaries
The spatial boundaries of the research: The Iraqi Stock Exchange, the Iraqi commercial banking sector
The temporal limits of the research: The financial statements data of the Iraqi commercial banks for the period (2011-2021) were included
Research Community and Sample
The research community includes the Iraqi joint stock banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange, as four banks were selected, namely (Al-Mansour Investment Bank, Khaleeji Commercial Bank, Bank of Baghdad and the National Bank of Iraq) for the period of the year (2011-2021) as shown in the Table 1.
Table 1:Iraqi local commercial banks study sample (amount in million Iraqi dinars)
The bank | Bank code | Listing date | The current capital |
| Al-Mansour Investment Bank | BMNS | 2008/07/01 | 250,000,000,000 |
Alkhalij Commercial Bank | BGUC | 2004/07/25 | 300,000,000,000 |
Baghdad Bank | BBOB | 2004/06/15 | 250,000,000,000 |
alahli Bank of Iraq | BNOI | 2004/07/08 | 250,000,000,000 |
Source: Prepared by the researcher after reviewing the information from the Iraq Stock Exchange, the commercial banking sector
Table 2: Scientific Symbols for Independent and Dependent Variables
Variable | User code |
Return on Assets = Net Profit After Tax/Total Assets | ROAt.i |
Return on Equity = Net Profit After Tax/Equity | ROEt.i |
exchange rate (market rate) | MPt.i |
Dummy variable (binary): Takes (1) in the event of a COVID-19 pandemic, the opposite takes (0) | CO-19t.i |
Error value (residuals) | gt.i |
The table was prepared by the researcher after reviewing the scientific sources
Financial and Statistical Tools and Methods
The use of exchange rate data and a set of financial indicators of financial safety as financial tools for the purposes of analysis, represented in the equations for testing hypotheses with the symbols that correspond to the statistical methods in this study to show the presence or absence of correlation between the variables and then using multiple linear regression to reach the model equations. After the necessary data were collected and extracted, organized and categorized within a program, the models were also used to test the research hypotheses by analogy with the study of Ruihao [1], Shumway [2], Campbell et al. [3], Falah et al. [4] and Hillegeist et al. [5], It is as follows:
For the purpose of testing the first and second main hypotheses and their ramifications, models No. 1-2 are used:

For the purpose of testing the third and fourth main hypotheses and their ramifications, models No. 3-4 are used:

Since; The Table 2 was prepared by the researcher after reviewing the scientific sources.
The Theoretical Side of the Research
The Exchange Rate
The Concept of Exchange Rate: An exchange rate is the price of one country's currency expressed in the currency of another country. It is worth noting that practically all currency trading is done in US dollars in most countries of the world, for example, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are traded at their quoted prices in US dollars [6]. In a related context, the exchange rate determines the number of units of a particular currency that can be purchased with one unit of another currency. For example, the number of US dollars required to purchase one unit of foreign currency, for this in practice, through the economic bulletins of the Central Bank and the money market, direct quotations for the dollar are presented, in which the number of dollars against one unit of foreign currency is mentioned, for example, the number of dollars against each euro as if The direct rate of the EUR in US dollars is 1.2841 dollars so 1 euro can be bought for 1.2841 dollars [7].
Factors that Affect Exchange Rates
Relative Inflation Rates: Changes in inflation rates can affect international trade activity, affecting the demand and supply of currencies and consequently, exchange rates [8]. For example, suppose that the supply of dollars increases in relation to the demand for them This excess growth in the money supply will lead to inflation, for example, in the United States, which means that the general price level in the United States will begin to rise, which will lead to a decrease in the value of the dollar, in turn, inflation leads to an increase in the value of foreign currencies such as the euro against the dollar and then the high rate of inflation in the United States will lead to an increase in exports of the euro currency to the United States and reduce US exports to the Eurozone [9].
Relative Levels of Income
A change in the level of income distribution can affect consumption patterns, production decisions of domestic firms and the competitiveness of a country's economic sectors. Accordingly, if we assume that consumers when their income increases according to the increase in wages tend to change their preferences towards more luxury goods than necessary goods, in this case the increase in wages affects income and leads to changes in consumer preferences and thus qualitatively affected the imports of the state [10].
Governmental Controls
The equilibrium of the exchange rate is affected by government controls in several ways, namely, the imposition of foreign exchange barriers, the imposition of foreign trade barriers, intervention in the sale and purchase of currencies in foreign exchange markets and the influence on macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rates and income levels [11].
Relative Economic Growth Rates
The country's high economic growth rate attracts investment capital that seeks to invest in local assets. As the demand for local assets increases the demand for the local currency, which makes the value of the currency stronger, that is, economic growth leads to a stronger currency [9].
Exchange Rate Regimes
Exchange Rate Systems are Divided Into
Fixed Exchange Rate System: Under a fixed exchange rate system, the value of a currency remains fairly stable but when the economic policies of the fixed-currency issuing country are unstable, distortions in the financial and commodity markets appear. Also, if the parity rate of a currency is much higher than its intrinsic value, that is, the value of the currency has been overestimated, then the country of that currency faces a loss in foreign markets of its goods due to exports amounts that lead to flooding the domestic markets with cheap goods, resulting in a deficit in the balance of payments and a decline in foreign currency reserves through which the government can maintain the balance of the value of the exchange rate [12].
Flexible Exchange Rate System
In the early 1970s the US dollar was separated from the gold standard and a floating system was adopted that works by responding to demand and supply arising from international trade and investment activities. In addition, according to the International Monetary Fund, about 42 countries currently operate under the system of floating exchange rates, as exchange rates are allowed to move according to the activities of the exchange and money markets and the role of the government represented by the central bank to control the exchange rate of the currency under this system is limited, unlike the fixed system and that to mitigate extreme fluctuations in exchange rates [7].
The Corona Pandemic
What is the Corona pandemic?: In late December 2019, an outbreak of a disease of unknown cause called pneumonia occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The outbreak has spread dramatically, infecting 9,720 people in China, with 213 deaths and 106 people infected in 19 other countries. A few days after the outbreak of this disease, the causative agent of this mysterious pneumonia was identified as a virus by several independent laboratories. That is why this virus was called the Corona virus and it was also called the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization [13]. The virus that causes COVID-19 undoubtedly affects people of all ages [14].
The Impact of the Corona Pandemic on the Exchange Rate
This pandemic has caused significant fluctuations in global financial markets, after the regulatory authorities found that global stock market reports show clear different patterns before and after the outbreak of the pandemic, as well as that the policy responses of countries that present more uncertainty in global financial markets helped create These fluctuations [15]. Also, the exchange rate fluctuations that occurred due to the pandemic affected the trade balance and global competitiveness and thus affected the real GDP of countries. At the same time, one of the direct channels through which the pandemic affects global economic activities is the fluctuations in the cost of inputs resulting from inflation, crude oil prices and exchange rates, which leads to disparity and instability in the total rate of consumption [16].
The Impact of the Corona Pandemic on Banking Profitability
According to the important and central role that banks play in the growth and economic development of different countries, the banking performance [17]. Therefore, the banking sector is considered one of the basic sectors in every economy, as these institutions organize the circulation of funds and credit intermediation and they are also the main mediator in the financial market in each country. The banking sector also played an important role during the outbreak of the pandemic, with the aim of trying to contain it and mitigate its effects. For this reason, banks have been classified as the most important institutions that are trying to withstand the impact of the deteriorating economic situation due to the pandemic in many countries. It was expected that banks would play an important role in absorbing the shock of the Corona pandemic by providing credit to the household and corporate sectors with the aim of mitigating the effects of the pandemic [18].
Banking Profitability
The Concept of Banking Profitability: Profitability is the factor guiding the performance of the banking sector, which works to strengthen the financial position of the banks and prevent the occurrence of unexpected accumulated losses. As the banks that are constantly facing losses will eventually exhaust their capital base, which will put depositors and borrowers at risk. Hence, the banking sector designs its operations and performance strategies in order to achieve the goal of maximizing profit [19]. Therefore, we can conclude that profitability ratios measure the level of efficiency and ability of bank management to achieve profits on assets, sales and property rights [20].
Return on Assets Ratio (ROA)
It is one of the profitability ratios that can be used to determine the financial soundness of the bank. Profitability ratios are included in the classification of the banking system as sound or unsound. Profitability also has an important meaning for the bank because it is one of the bases for evaluating its condition. Therefore, the profitability of the bank shows a comparison between profits, assets and the capital that generates these profits. Therefore, the return on assets reflects the bank’s ability to achieve profits during a certain period of time and also whether the bank has good prospects or not. not in the future [21]. Therefore, this ratio is expressed through the following equation [6]:

Table 3: Market Exchange Rate
Market price | Date |
1195.66 | 12/31/2011 |
1232.66 | 12/31/2012 |
1128.92 | 12/31/2013 |
1213.66 | 12/31/2014 |
1247.41 | 12/31/2015 |
1275.25 | 12/31/2016 |
1258 | 12/31/2017 |
1217.25 | 12/31/2018 |
1196.25 | 12/31/2019 |
1233.91 | 12/31/2020 |
1474.16 | 12/31/2021 |
1474.16 | The highest rate |
1128.92 | Minimum |
1243.012 | Arithmetic mean |
Source: Central Bank of Iraq, Department of Statistics and Research, Data Rage: 01/31/2011 To: 12/31/2021
Table 4: Analysis of % Return on Assets (ROA)
Al-Mansour Investment Bank | Alkhalij Commercial Bank | Baghdad Bank | Alahli Bank of Iraq | Years |
2.91 | 3.28 | 2.39 | 1.35 | 2011 |
2.85 | 7.26 | 1.92 | 4.57 | 2012 |
3.2 | 6.07 | 1.81 | 2.55 | 2013 |
1.91 | 4.42 | 1.52 | 1.14 | 2014 |
1.83 | 1.21 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 2015 |
1.3 | 0.73 | 1.68 | 4.06 | 2016 |
1.12 | 0.7 | 0.56 | 0.49 | 2017 |
1.35 | 0.1 | 0.37 | -1.50 | 2018 |
0.56 | -0.71 | 0.64 | 1.45 | 2019 |
0.54 | -0.0002 | 1.42 | 2.22 | 2020 |
1.16 | -0.94 | 1.94 | 1.43 | 2021 |
3.2 | 7.26 | 2.39 | 4.57 | The highest rate |
0.54 | -0.0002 | 0.36 | -1.50 | Minimum |
1.70181818 | 2.32909091 | 1.32818182 | 1.95636364 | Arithmetic mean |
The table was prepared by the researcher using the Excel program after accreditation, review and analysis of the annual financial reports of the Iraqi local commercial banks, the study sample published in the Iraq Stock Exchange
The Practical Side of the Study
Descriptive Analysis of Research Variables
Market Exchange Rate Analysis: The data issued was approved by the Central Bank of Iraq (Monetary Stability Department - Statistics - Central Banking - Central Bank Library) published on the website of the Central Bank of Iraq on the Internet.
Here we analyse the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar during the study period that extends (2011-2021).
According to Table 3, the market exchange rate for the period (2011-2021) is clarified, as it turns out that the general average for the study period is (1243.012) dinars. The lowest value of the exchange rate was in 2013, when the exchange rate amounted to (1,128.92) dinars and the highest value of the exchange rate was in 2021, when the exchange rate amounted to (1474.16) dinars and the fluctuation rate is between the lowest and highest value of the exchange rate at a rate of (1.23%).
Analysis of Profitability Indicators in Iraqi Local Commercial Banks
The following is the special analysis for each of the banking profitability indicators according to the financial statements issued by the Iraqi local commercial banks (the study sample for the period )2011-2021):
Revenue and Profitability Index
Analyze the Return on Assets: Table 4 shows that, according to the results we obtained, the highest value of this percentage was in Alkhalij Bank with a rate of (7.26%) and the lowest value of this ratio within the years of the study period in the same bank was (0%), after that, the mean of the banks in the study sample shows that the Alkhalij Bank recorded the highest mean of the mean with a rate of (2.32), followed by the alahli Bank of Iraq (1.95%). This indicates that Alkhalij Bank has the highest net income ratio to total assets among other banks in the study sample.
Return On Equity Ratio Analysis
Table 5 shows, according to the results we obtained, that the highest value of this percentage is in Alkhalij Bank with a rate of (20.69%) and that the lowest value of this percentage within the years of the study period in the same bank amounted to (0%). After that, the arithmetic mean of the banks of the study sample shows that the Bank of Baghdad recorded the highest mean of the arithmetic mean by (7.29), followed by the Alkhalij Bank (5.99%) and this indicates that the Bank of Baghdad has the highest net income ratio to the right of ownership among other banks, the study sample.
Descriptive Tests for Research Variables
To Test the Correlation Coefficient Between the Study Variables: The correlation coefficient measures the degree of linear correlation between two variables and the correlation coefficients for the study variables were as in the Table 6.
Table 6 indicates that the values of the correlation coefficient between the independent variables are less than (0.80±), which indicates that there is no linear correlation problem between the study variables.
Table 5: Analysis of the % Return on Equity (ROE)
Al-Mansour Investment Bank | Alkhalij Commercial Bank | Baghdad Bank | Alahli Bank of Iraq | Years |
7.22 | 9.84 | 15.01 | 2.36 | 2011 |
4.64 | 20.69 | 12.11 | 9.96 | 2012 |
9.02 | 15.6 | 11 | 8.23 | 2013 |
6 | 10.44 | 9.5 | 2.67 | 2014 |
6.84 | 3.06 | 2.12 | 0.88 | 2015 |
5 | 1.84 | 7.15 | 8.16 | 2016 |
5.11 | 1.31 | 2.21 | 1.03 | 2017 |
7.11 | 0.18 | 1.55 | -3.06 | 2018 |
2.96 | -1.28 | 2.66 | 3.57 | 2019 |
2.44 | -0.0004 | 7.25 | 6.47 | 2020 |
2.89 | -1.66 | 9.69 | 8.27 | 2021 |
9.02 | 20.69 | 15.01 | 9.96 | The highest rate |
2.44 | -0.0004 | 1.55 | -3.06 | Minimum |
5.38454545 | 5.99181818 | 7.29545455 | 4.99727273 | Arithmetic mean |
The table was prepared by the researcher using the Excel program after accreditation, review and analysis of the annual financial reports of the Iraqi local commercial banks, the study sample published in the Iraq Stock Exchange
Table 6: Correlation Matrix for Study Variables
Correlation | ROA | ROE | MP |
ROA | 1.000 | ||
Probability | ----- | ||
ROE | 0.841 | 1.000 | |
Probability | 0.000 | ----- | |
MP | -0.215 | -0.172 | 1.000 |
Probability | 0.162 | 0.265 | ----- |
Table 7: For the Restricted Chow or F-test
Null hypothesis (H0) | F-test | Prop | Test result |
Model direction OLS | 0.850 | 0.476 | The hypothesis is accepte The most appropriate cumulative effects Method (H0) |
Table 8: Test the First Sub-Hypothesis of the First and Second Main Hypotheses
Variable | Variables | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
C | Fixed limit | 1.235 | 6.663 | 0.185 | 0.854 |
MP | Market price | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.058 | 0.954 |
Co-19 | COVID-19 | -0.493 | 7.565 | -0.065 | 0.948 |
Co-19*MP | COVID-19 *Market Price | 0.000 | 0.006 | 0.045 | 0.964 |
R-squared | 0.342 | Adjusted R-squared | 0.267 | ||
F-statistic | 4.556 | Prob (F-statistic) | 0.005 | ||
Research hypothesis testing
Model Test Results (1): We determine the most suitable model, as we will conduct two tests and in two stages, the first stage (the first test) to determine the homogeneity of individual units between the cumulative effects method (OLS) (homogeneous single units) and the fixed effects method (LSDV) (heterogeneous individual units) in order to find out the most suitable model, which is known as the Chow or restricted F-test. The results of this test were as in Table 7.
According to the Table 7, the Prop value of the F-test is (0.476), which indicates that the H0 hypothesis is accepted, which means that the cumulative effects method is superior, that is, homogeneous individual units have been accepted and the aggregative effects cumulative effects method has become the most suitable.
Test the First and Second Major Hypotheses and Their Branches
Test the Fifth Sub-Hypothesis of the First and Second Main Hypotheses
The first sub-hypothesis of the first main hypothesis: The effect of the exchange rate (market rate) on the indicators of banking profitability, as measured by the rate of return on assets
The first sub-hypothesis of the second main hypothesis: The effect of exchange rate fluctuations (market rate) on banking profitability indicators, as measured by the rate of return on assets in light of the Corona pandemic
Table 8 shows through the results of the statistical analysis the significance of the model, where the value of (Prob) (F-statistic) was less than (0.05) and it was (0.005), which indicates that the model is valid for the test and its results are reliable, as for the value of (R)-squared) was (0.342), which means that the explanatory power of the independent variables with the dependent variable is 34%), while the value of (Adjusted R-squared) was (0.267), which means that the independent variables affect the dependent variable by (27%).
Interpretation of the Result of the First Sub-Hypothesis of the First Main Hypothesis
The results of the statistical analysis show that the value of (Prob) for the independent variable, the exchange rate measured by the market price index, is higher than (0.05), reaching (0.954), which indicates that there is no significant effect of the market price on the banking profitability indicators, as measured by the rate of return on assets.
Table 9: For the Restricted Chow or F-test
Null hypothesis (H0) | F-test | Prop | Test result |
model direction OLS | 0.546 | 0.654 | The hypothesis is accepted The most appropriate cumulative effects Method (H0) |
Table 10: Testing the Second Sub-Hypothesis of the First and Second Main Hypotheses
Variable | Variables | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
C | Fixed limit | 15.222 | 18.200 | 0.836 | 0.409 |
MP | market price | -0.009 | 0.015 | -0.577 | 0.567 |
Co-19 | COVID-19 | -15.085 | 20.665 | -0.730 | 0.470 |
Co-19*MP | COVID-19 *Market Price | 0.013 | 0.017 | 0.768 | 0.448 |
R-squared | 0.379 | Adjusted R-squared | 0.308 | ||
F-statistic | 5.347 | Prob (F-statistic) | 0.002 | ||
Interpretation of the Result of the First Sub-Hypothesis of the Second Main Hypothesis
The results of the statistical analysis show that the value (Prob) of the median adjusted variable Covid-19 is higher than (0.05) as it reached (0.964), which indicates that there is no significant effect of Covid-19 on the impact of the exchange rate as measured by the market price on the banking profitability indicators as measured by return on assets.
Model Test Results (2): We determine the most suitable model, as we will conduct two tests and in two stages, the first stage (the first test) to determine the homogeneity of individual units between the cumulative effects method (OLS) (homogeneous single units) and the fixed effects method (LSDV) (heterogeneous individual units) in order to find out the most suitable model, which is known as the Chow or restricted F-test. The results of this test were as in Table 9.
According to the Table 9, the Prop value of the F-test is (0.654), which indicates that the H0 hypothesis is accepted, which means that the cumulative effects method is superior, that is, homogeneous individual units have been accepted and the aggregative effects cumulative effects method has become the most suitable.
Test the Second Sub-Hypothesis of the First and Second Main Hypotheses
The second sub-hypothesis of the first main hypothesis: The effect of the exchange rate (market rate) on the indicators of banking profitability as measured by the rate of return on equity
The second sub-hypothesis of the second main hypothesis: The effect of exchange rate fluctuations (the market price) on the indicators of banking profitability, as measured by the rate of return on equity in light of the Corona pandemic
Table 10 shows through the results of the statistical analysis the significance of the model, where the value of (Prob) (F-statistic) was less than (0.05) and it was (0.002), which indicates that the model is valid for the test and its results are reliable, as for the value of (R)-squared) was (0.379), which means that the explanatory power of the independent variables with the dependent variable is (38%) and the value of (Adjusted R-squared) was (0.308), which means that the independent variables affect the dependent variable by (31%).
Interpretation of the Result of the Second Sub-Hypothesis of the First Main Hypothesis
The results of the statistical analysis show that the value of (Prob) for the independent variable, the exchange rate measured by the market price index, is higher than (0.05), reaching (0.567), which indicates that there is no significant effect of the market price on the banking profitability indicators, as measured by the rate of return on equity.
Interpretation of the Result of the Second Sub-Hypothesis of the Second Main Hypothesis
The results of the statistical analysis show that the value (Prob) of the median adjusted variable Covid-19 is higher than (0.05) as it reached (0.448), which indicates that there is no significant effect of Covid-19 on the effect of the exchange rate as measured by the market price on the banking profitability indicators as measured by Return on equity.
The state of fluctuation in the exchange rate according to the market rate is large and in proportion to the conditions of the country and the state of supply and demand, in addition to the state’s policy in the recent period that adopted the high exchange rate compared to the Iraqi currency in order to cover the budget deficit, It is also evident from the results of the profitability indicator, the return on assets, in the case of a somewhat large relative disparity between the banks of the study sample, due to the nature of the investment of funds and the achievement of profits from investing assets in a way that achieves the highest revenues when compared to the expenses and receivables related to the result of this investment. In addition, the results showed the great disparity of the profitability indicator, the return on equity, among the banks of the study sample, despite the convergence or equality of the basic capital for them, due to the nature of investing money and achieving profits from capital investment in a way that achieves the highest revenues, which gives a clear picture to investors because it is an important indicator for them. If compared to the expenses and receivables related to the result of this investment. It was also found from the results that there was no significant effect of the exchange rate according to the market price index on the ratio of return to total assets according to the two methods, whether by excluding the impact of the pandemic or by its presence, which means that fluctuations in the market exchange rate did not cause changes in the level of revenues generated from this fluctuation, due to the dependence of its revenues and profits on Granting loans or any use of its assets or any banking activity in the local currency that is more than the dollar. The results also showed an insignificant effect of the exchange rate according to the market price index on the ratio of return to equity according to the two methods, whether by excluding the impact of the pandemic or by its presence, which means that fluctuations in the market exchange rate did not cause changes in the level of revenues generated from this fluctuation and this is due to the adoption of its revenues and profits or Any banking activity that uses its capital in the local currency more than the dollar.
Recommendations
The need to take into consideration the study of the state of fluctuation in the market exchange rate in the Iraqi economic reality and its positive and negative results in all fields and activities, especially its banking activity. It is also necessary for banks to pay attention to improving investment and its continuity in light of competition and renewal in the banking business, in order for this to result in an increase in revenues at the expense of expenses, which is reflected in the continuity of current and future profits. And also the need for banks to pay attention to studying the crises that occur, whether financial or non-financial and to take care and caution in how to deal with them in light of that. It also requires taking the issue of changing the effective and market exchange rate into consideration in drawing up the financing and investment policies of banks so as not to expose these banks to exchange rate risks and the risks associated with them as a result, To ensure that it maintains its competitive and market position. Add to that the need to pay attention to studying the problems of the age and epidemics that appear from time to time, as well as matters related to the environment, as they are problems that may be the result of human intervention and the results that result from them in order not to expose banks to financial pressures due to mishandling these phenomena with their various names and addresses.
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