The sunflower crop is one of the most important oil crops in the world. It gives the largest amount of oil per unit cultivated area because its seeds contain a high percentage of oil that may reach 50%. The expansion of its production began globally since 1993 [1]. High quality oils that are used in human food and soap industry. Inaddition, the meal is used in various animal diets because it contains a high percentage of protein and various mineral elements [2].   Cultivation     of non-oily    varieties    of the

entered from neighboring countries and was metaphorically called local varieties. As for the oil varieties, they began to be cultivated commercially in the early seventies, and most of the cultivated areas are concentrated in the northern governorates. 40% on average of the total cultivated area nationwide during the study period [3]

Research Problem

In view of the increasing demand for food and because of the increasing population and the lack of response by producers using traditional irrigation methods, the lack of water and the low productivity, the need to resort to the need to resort to the use of modern methods of pivot and fixed sprinkler irrigation with high productivity, as well as the selection of imported seeds with high efficiency capable of Increasing the productivity of dunums planted with the sunflower crop, and this requires identifying the efficiency of resource use in modern irrigation methods compared to traditional irrigation methods and the impact of these methods on the costs and revenues of sunflower producers, and that will lead to an increase in the annual production of the sunflower crop, which may contribute to Filling the deficit in consumption of this crop and narrowing the food gap for the sunflower crop.

Research Importance

The importance of the research lies in the fact that the sunflower crop is one of the strategic and important food crops locally and internationally, so attention must be paid to its cultivation to increase the amount produced from it and at the level of Iraq in general and Kirkuk Governorate in particular through horizontal expansion by increasing the areas cultivated by traditional irrigation methods and vertical expansion through the use of modern means In irrigation, as well as land preparation and harvesting, high-yielding seeds and compound fertilizers rich in phosphorous, which have an impact on increasing crop productivity and resistance to diseases and agricultural pests and its ability to make the crop able to withstand emergency conditions such as lack of irrigation and weather conditions that may be detrimental to the crop.

Research Aims

• A study of the reality of sunflower production in Iraq for the period (2000-2022)

• Estimating the demand function for the sunflower crop in Iraq for the period (2000-2022)

• Estimating the price, income and cross elasticity of demand for the sunflower crop in Iraq

Research Hypothesis

This study proceeds from the hypothesis that there is a causal relationship between the demand for sunflower crop and the factors affecting it, and this relationship is:

• There is an inverse relationship between the demand for sunflower crop and its price

• There is a positive relationship between the demand for sunflower crop and the level of per capita income

Data Sources

Sunflower crop data in Iraq for the period (2000-2022) were obtained through the Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperation - Central Statistical Organization.

Research Style

The study will depend on the descriptive and quantitative analysis that is based on the foundations, principles and concepts of economic theory and the methods of mathematical, statistical and econometric analysis in testing the hypotheses of the study and achieving its objectives by measuring the demand function on the sunflower crop in Iraq using the method of least squares (OLS) and using the four function formulas, the linear model and the model The double logarithmic model, the half logarithmic model, and the inverted logarithmic half, choosing the best among the models, the most consistent with the logic of economic theory, the most significant, and free from standard problems.

Demand in Economic Theory

Demand is defined as the desire associated with payment, and the individual demand curve is an engineering expression of the functional relationship between market prices and the quantities required by the individual at each price. The individual demand function for a specific commodity can be obtained by the individual obtaining the maximum possible satisfaction from spending his cash income. Therefore, the individual demand function for a particular commodity shows the different quantities of that commodity that the consumer wishes to purchase at different price levels. Market demand by collecting the individual demand functions. Bentham is one of the first interested in studying the theory of demand, and he concluded that every commodity has a benefit and that the well-being of the individual is achieved when obtaining the largest possible amount of benefit. Then Pigou added to Bentham's views a basic principle, which is that the individual is constantly trying to raise his satisfaction to the maximum extent possible, and this led to the emergence of the theory of rational consumer behavior, which occupied the forefront in Marshall's theory of demand, and what is taken from that theory is its assumption of equal levels of satisfaction individuals have similar tastes [4]

Factors Affecting the Demand Function

Demand is determined by many factors, the most important of which are: [5]

• Commodity price: The change in the commodity price within the time period is one of the first factors affecting the demand function, as it is known that the price has an inverse relationship with demand, meaning that the effect of the price change on the consumer’s purchases is opposite, so the price drop means that the consumer can obtain on more commodities within his income limits, except in rare cases. And it can be expressed in unusual demand, such as what is called ostentatious consumption when consumers measure their desire for a commodity by its price only, so they buy a little of it when the price is low and a lot when its price is high, or in the case of people believing that the high price of the commodity is evidence of its quality, as well as in the case of inferior goods ( Geffen commodity), as it has the negative effect of income from old age, so that it cancels the positive substitution effect.

• Change in the size of the population: The increase in the number of consumers results in an increase in the required quantities of the commodity and vice versa. Therefore, the change in the size of the population is one of the important factors affecting the demand function, and its effect increases whenever the size of this change is large.

• Real income per capita: What is meant by real income is the amount of goods and services that an individual can obtain through cash income. It expresses the purchasing power of cash income, which in turn depends on the general level of prices. It can be said that real income is an inverse function of the general level of prices. Income is one of the main determinants of consumer demand for a commodity, as the increase in consumer income results in an increase in their purchasing power, so the demand for commodities increases with the increase in disposable income and according to the spending flexibility of that commodity. Usually, economists distinguish between two types of commodities in terms of their relationship to income, which are normal commodities, in which the quantity demanded increases with an increase in income and vice versa, and inferior commodities, in which the quantity demanded decreases with an increase in income as the consumer turns to commodities of better quality, in addition to that, there are commodities that are distinguished That the demand for it is fully satisfied after the consumer's income reaches a certain limit, and then there is no effect of the change in income on the required quantity of that commodity. [6]

• Prices of other commodities: consumer demand for commodities depends on the prices of other commodities (substitute and complementary). Therefore, the change in the prices of other commodities may affect the demand for a commodity, and this depends on the type of other commodities, and it is possible to distinguish between three types of commodities, namely:

• Substitutes: These are the commodities that can be used as substitutes. An increase in the price of a commodity leads to an increase in the demand for substitute commodities.

• Compliments: These are the commodities that are considered complementary to the original commodity, as one of them can only be consumed by consuming the other (such as tea and sugar, for example). An increase in the price of the commodity leads to a decrease in the demand for its complementary commodities.

• Independent commodities: These are the commodities in which the consumption of one is not related to the other, and therefore there is no effect of changing the price of the commodity on the consumed quantities of other commodities.

• Consumers' Tastes and Expectations: The desire and inclinations of consumers towards a particular commodity and their preference for it leads to an increase in the required quantity of it. Also, their lack of preference for the commodity, that is, the shift of their tastes towards another commodity, leads to a decrease in the required quantity of the commodity. The evolution of the consumption pattern as a result of social development and economic development, the expansion of the media, the change of tastes and the expectations of individuals for the future in terms of increasing their income, all these factors lead to an increase in the demand for the commodity, that is, they have a specific effect on the demand function.

Demand elasticity

Flexibility is the ratio between the relative change in the dependent variable to the relative change in the independent variable, and flexibility measures the extent of change in the required quantities of the commodity as a result of the change in the factors affecting it except for taste, which is not quantifiable [7].

1- Price Elasticity of Demand

What is meant by the percentage change in the quantity demanded to the percentage change in its price, with income and other commodity prices remaining constant.

Since:

• E11: represents price elasticity

• DQ_d: represents the change in the quantity demanded of the commodity

• DP₁: the change in the price of the commodity

The price elasticity of demand is used to measure the impact of price change on demand, as the elasticity varies from one commodity to another, as necessary goods are less elastic than luxury goods. Economists theoretically divide degrees of flexibility into five cases:

• Elasticity equal to zero, E11 = 0, for inelastic commodities, such as commodities that have a necessity once and then no longer need it

• Elasticity is equal to E11 = 1 for commodities that are equivalently elastic or balanced

• Elasticity less than E11 < 1 for inelastic commodities such as essential commodities

• Elasticity greater than E11 > 1 for elastic goods such as luxury goods

• Infinite elasticity E11 = ∞ as individual consumer demand in a constant competition market and the negative sign of the elasticity coefficient due to the law of demand

Cross Price Elasticity

The relative change in demand for one quantity of commodities to the relative change in the prices of other commodities related to it, with constant income and commodity price.

P₂ DQ₁

E_p =   ---------------

Q₁DP₂

The elasticity of the intersection of demand is used to measure the extent to which commodities are related to each other, as it shows the relationships of substitution or integration that may exist between the two commodities, and the sign of the cross-elasticity coefficient depends on the relationship between the two commodities, and there are three types:

• If the two commodities are substitutes, the cross-elasticity is positive, meaning that an increase in the price of the second commodity leads to an increase in the quantity demanded of the first commodity

• If the two commodities are complementary, the cross elasticity is negative. That is, an increase in the price of the second commodity leads to a decrease in the quantity demanded of the first commodity

• If the two commodities are independent, the cross-elasticity is equal to zero, meaning that the increase or decrease in the price of one of the two commodities does not lead to a change in the quantity demanded of the other commodity

Income Elasticity of Demand

It represents the relative change in the quantity demanded of a commodity to the relative change in consumer income, assuming constant prices.

IDQ₁

h = --------

Q₁DI

Since:

• h: income elasticity of demand

• I: represents income

• Q1: Quantity demanded of the good

The income elasticity of most commodities is positive, because an increase in income leads to an increase in demand, except in certain cases where the elasticity is negative. Either there are more developed alternatives that the consumer turns to, or there is a commodity of low social value. The income elasticity gives pictures of the level of saturation of the commodity and can be used in predicting the extent of consumption of commodities in the future. [8].

• If h > 1, then the commodity is luxury and the level of satisfaction is low.

• If 0 < h < 1, then the commodity is good and the level of satisfaction is appropriate for it.

• And if h = 0, then the commodity is balanced, that is, the demand for the commodity is not affected by the change in income.

• If h< 0, the product is bad

• If h = 1, the commodity is semi-necessary

The Mathematical Model of the Demand Function for the Sunflower Crop in Iraq for the Period (2000-2022)

The mathematical model of the demand function for the sunflower crop in Iraq can be formulated as follows:

Since:

• Qd: Demand derived from the sunflower crop

• Px1: the price of the previous year's sunflower crop

• Px2: the price of the yellow corn crop for a previous year

• I: average per capita income

• Y: population size

According to the relationship between the dependent factor, which represents the required amount of sunflower crop, and the independent factors that affect it in the model, the model can be reformulated according to the negative and positive signs, which reflect the inverse and positive relationship between the dependent factor and the independent factors in the model to become as follows:

Since:

        Qd = The dependent variable that we adopted in our analysis is the quantity required for consumption of the sunflower crop for the years (2000-2020) and at the country level.

Px1 = the first explanatory variable: it is the price of the sunflower crop, and economic theory refers to the inverse relationship between the required quantity of a commodity and its price according to the law of demand, given that the decrease in the price leads to an increase in the real income of the individual, and thus increases his purchases of the commodity in question, and thus we expect the inverse relationship Between this variable and the amount available for consumption of the sunflower crop.

Px2 = the second explanatory variable: it is the price of the yellow corn crop, as this variable was introduced because it is related to the sunflower crop, as this commodity plays its role in the consumption patterns of individuals, as it works to change the consumer's consumption spending. Economic theory refers to the positive relationship between the quantity demanded of a commodity and the prices of substitute goods and to the negative relationship with the prices of complementary goods. And economic theory indicates that the yellow corn crop is an alternative commodity to the sunflower crop, so we expect that the relationship will be positive between this crop and the target crop available for consumption.

I = the third explanatory variable: which represents the national income of the country, where the method of distributing national income among members of society is one of the factors or variables on which the demand for goods and services depends during a certain period of time, and the economist expects that the greater the fairness of the distribution of national income among members of society, the greater The purchasing power of most individuals, and thus the demand for goods and services increases, and vice versa, whenever the society’s income is confined to a small group or class in society, the purchasing power decreases for most of the society’s members, and then the demand for various goods and services decreases. Thus, we expect that the relationship will be positive between this variable and the one available for consumption from the target crop.

Y = the fourth explanatory variable: refers to the size of the population, as population growth is an important factor in increasing the demand for various commodities. The greater the number of consumers, the greater their demand for various commodities. Therefore, we expect that the relationship between the size of the population and the availability for consumption of the rice crop will be a direct relationship.

In addition to the existence of other factors that affect the demand for the crop, including the less important qualitative and explanatory variables that are not included in the model and whose influence is absorbed by the random variable Ui.

b0 is the parameter of the intersection of the regression line with the vertical axis (the equation constant). As well as the value of the dependent variable on average when we isolate the effect of the independent variables, including the random variable, that is, we assume Px1 = Px2 = I = Y = zero, and this means that this constant measures the effect of other factors affecting Qd that are excluded from the regression relationship.

b1, b2, b3, b4 represent the partial coefficients of regression, and they measure the amount of change in the value of the dependent variable (Qd) as a result of the change in the independent variables by one unit.

The annual time series for the aforementioned period was used to study this type of demand, and the ordinary least squares (OLS) method was used to find the numerical values of the model coefficients because it gives the best unbiased linear estimates.

Results of Estimating the Demand Function for the Sunflower Crop in Iraq for the Period (2000-2022)

The linear and double logarithmic, half logarithmic, and half inverted logarithmic models were used, and the double logarithmic function was chosen as the best function based on its superiority over other functions in statistical tests (T, F, R2) and the agreement of its parameters with economic logic as in the following equation:

Economic Analysis

The value of (B0^) was (3.511), which is the constant section of the function that represents the available consumption of the sunflower crop at the level of Iraq during the study period, when the explanatory variables (T, I, Px_2, Px_1) are equal to zero.

As for the parameter (b1^), its sign was negative, which confirms the inverse relationship between the sunflower available for consumption and its price, and its significance was proven at the level of 5%, and thus it was not contrary to what was approved by economic theory and the expectations of an inverse relationship between the price and the quantity demanded. As for its value, it was It amounted to (-0.912), which means that the increase in the price of the sunflower crop by 1%, with the rest of the variables constant at the average, leads to a decrease in the available for consumption by (b1^) i.e. (-0.912) thousand tons.

The parameter (b2^) has a positive sign, which is significant at the 5% level, and the appearance of a positive sign means that there is a reciprocal relationship between yellow corn and sunflower, and this is identical to what was approved by economic theory of the existence of a reciprocal or competitive relationship with sunflower. Perhaps the explanation for this is due to the consumption pattern of the Iraqi citizen (His customs and traditions) Therefore, it appeared with the positive sign, and the teacher's morale proves the reciprocal relationship between yellow corn and sunflower. Therefore, any change in yellow corn by 1%, with the rest of the variables constant at the average, the available for consumption of the target crop will change in the same proportion (b2^) i.e. (0.747), in other words, when the price of yellow corn increases by 1%, it will lead to an increase in the available for consumption Sunflower by (0.747) thousand tons.

While the parameter (b3^), which represents the national income of the country, came with a positive sign to confirm the direct relationship between the level of national income and the level available for consumption from the sunflower crop, and it was significant at the level (0.01), and this agrees with the logic of economic theory and the pre-hypothesis. (0.352) This means that if the national income changes by 1% with the rest of the variables remaining constant at the average, then the available for consumption of the sunflower crop changes by the same amount (b3^), in other words, an increase in the national income by 1% will lead to an increase in the available for consumption of the sunflower by a percentage (0.352) thousand tons.

Finally, the parameter (b4^), which represents the size of the population, came with a positive sign to confirm the direct relationship between the size of the population and the availability of sunflower consumption, and its significance was proven at the level of 5%. 1% will lead to an increase in the sunflower available for consumption by (0.128) thousand tons.

Reliance on the double logarithmic model means that the estimated parameters express price, intersectional and income elasticities of demand, and the importance of these elasticities in determining price policies and providing those in charge of implementing the policies with important information on the impact of price, income and intersectional changes in the required quantities of the sunflower crop or determining the share Per capita consumption of this crop in Iraq. The parameter estimated for the price of sunflower, amounting to (-0.912), indicates the price elasticity of demand, meaning that an increase in the price of sunflower by 1% in light of the remaining constant variables will decrease the quantities required by 91.2%. We note here that the response of the quantities to the change in prices was weak, or in other words, that the changes in prices are greater than the changes in quantities. Perhaps this matter reflects the importance of this commodity to the Iraqi consumer, who tries to obtain appropriate quantities of it even in light of its high prices, or works to rationalize his consumption of it to the extent that makes him get the greatest amount of satisfaction he has from the sunflower. As for the estimated parameter of income (0.352), it reflects the value of the income elasticity of demand, which indicates that a change in income by 1% leads to a change in demand by 35.2%, and since the income elasticity is less than 1%, this means that the sunflower showed an inconsistent response. Flexible to income change as it indicates that there is saturation in the consumption of this commodity. The values of the estimated parameters of the competitive crop price reflect the cross elasticity of demand (0.747).

Second: Statistical Analysis

A- First Class Exams

• The t test (T-test): The results that could be obtained from the double logarithmic function indicate the significance of the sunflower crop price and population size at all levels, as well as the significance of the sunflower crop price and the national income based on the calculated (t) values

• The F test (total significance test of the regression): It became clear from the F test that the model is highly significant with degrees of freedom (22, 4) through the calculated F value of (18.067). This indicates the realism of the function on the one hand and the importance of the independent variables that the model includes from On the other hand

• Determination coefficient (R²): The results of the equation showed that the value of the determination coefficient (R²), which amounted to about (0.77), and this means that 77% of the changes in the available consumption of yellow corn are due to the (independent) explanatory factors in the model, while 23% are due to the variables Others may be a quantity that is not included in the estimated model, or it may be a quality that falls within the concept of a random variable that has absorbed its impact

B- Second Class Tests (Standard Tests)

1- The problem of Autocorrelation: The value of (D.W) of (1.67) showed that there is a problem of autocorrelation between random errors, and this problem does not constitute an obstacle in the analysis of time series, given that the analysis of time series is used for future prediction, as this problem remains for the future, according to the value of Durban Watson (D.W) of (1.67). ) and after comparing it with its tabular value and using the sample size (n = 22) and (K = 4) and a level of significance of 5%, we find that:

• Du : 1.80

• 4 – du : 2.2

• Since the :

• du < D.W < 4-du

• That is: 2.2 < 1.67 < 1.80

On this basis, we reject the null hypothesis, which says that there is no autocorrelation, and accept the alternative hypothesis, which requires the existence of autocorrelation between random errors.

Hetroscedasticity Problem

And because the model adopted time series data, in addition to taking the double logarithmic form, this greatly reduces the chances of the emergence of the problem of instability of variance (Hetroscedasticity), which commonly appears in cross-sectional data.

The Problem of Multilinear Correlation

To detect this problem, the variance inflation coefficient test was used, and it showed that the variance inflation coefficient was as the value of VIF was approximately 3, and this indicates that there is no multilinearity problem in the model used in the research.

From The Foregoing, The Research Concluded the Following:

• The general trend of the yellow maize crop indicates a decrease in both the cultivated areas and the production quantities of this crop during the research period, as a result of the political and economic conditions that the country went through during this period

• The income elasticity of demand, whose value is 0.352, indicates that the satisfaction obtained from the Iraqi per capita consumption of yellow corn is high, and this naturally explains the Iraqi consumer's appetite for consuming this crop even in light of its high prices, which was explained by the weak response of the consumer to changes in prices, i.e. He is trying to get the largest possible satisfaction from yellow corn despite its high prices, and this is explained by the value of the price elasticity of demand, which is -0.912

• The positive sign of the income elasticity of demand gives the impression that the corn crop is a natural and necessary commodity

• The Y population coefficient indicates a positive development in the demand function during the research period, and this indicates the tastes of consumers, the increase in population, and the change in the consumption pattern of the individual, all of which affect the quantities required

Recommendations

Based on the above conclusions, the research recommends:

• The need to pay attention to the sunflower crop, starting from its cultivation in the land to its final consumer, and this necessarily requires that the problems that hinder its presence on the consumer’s table be overcome permanently and at reasonable prices, and this matter requires the cooperation of all parties related to the crop. The farmer, for his part, must follow scientific methods in cultivating the crop, because otherwise it will lead to harm to the agricultural land, which in turn will be reflected in the quantities available for local consumption

• Farmers should work on marketing their products to the state, provided that there are promotional prices that contribute to covering production costs and achieving appropriate profitability rates for farmers that work to keep them in their profession without trouble, which will reflect positively on the cultivation of sunflowers in Iraq. Also, placing the burden on the farmers alone in shouldering the responsibility of advancing the cultivation of the sunflower crop in Iraq would be a great injustice to this segment, and here comes the role of the government, as its role is limited to the need for a stable price policy, noting that this requires broad support from all relevant ministries and the adoption of certain measures The government supports farmers by providing loans on concessional terms and extending the payment period

• Providing seeds of good varieties, pesticides and their requirements, as well as increasing production of compound fertilizer and urea to cover the shortage of produce in the market, which is covered by importing from origins with poor specifications

• Addressing the problem of power outages, which has become an intractable problem by the concerned ministry. Or the contribution of the Ministry of Oil to provide farmers with a share of fuel and oils to operate pumps and equipment at reasonable prices

• The research also recommends the need to work on educating the consumer to maintain appropriate consumption rates for what is available of this commodity in the market, and this is done by carrying out media campaigns not only for this commodity, but in general for all consumer commodities, because the gap generated from the failure of local production to keep pace with demand They are avoided either by importing quantities of deficit and the exhaustion that this causes to the state budget, or by rationalizing consumption, noting that such a matter requires changing the dietary pattern and diverting its course towards more available commodities, and this requires a media effort in which the relevant departments cooperate, especially that Iraqi society has gone through Difficult periods forced him to change his diet and adapt it to the situation he went through, and this is not an easy matter because changing the diet requires a period of time that may be long

• The family should play an important role in controlling the amounts of spending on this commodity, because the repeated consumption of this substance on a daily basis means an increase in the total consumption rates, and even in light of successive increases in production, this production will remain inadequate to keep pace with local demand, so that part of the burden It should be placed on the shoulders of the Iraqi family because it is an essential pillar in the sunflower crop market

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