The research aims to study (the impact of the Agricultural Bank's policies on agricultural productivity in Iraq) to study the increase in agricultural productivity in exchange for the loans granted and to study the percentage of loans directed towards the consumer side. In addition to identifying the extent of the actual increase in the gross domestic product from the increase in agricultural productivity. The impact of both the agricultural production variables and the cultivated area on the agricultural loans provided by the Agricultural Bank for the period 1990-2023 was studied using the econometric tool. The study concluded that there was no statistical impact of the loans provided by the Agricultural Bank on increasing production or increasing the cultivated area and there was no significant contribution of the agricultural sector to the gross domestic product. We find that it tended to decline after it was before the year 2003 ranging at 20%, but it tended to decline and reached 1%. This shows the extent of neglect and the failure to follow efficient policies capable of reforming the agricultural sector, as with the direction of bank loans and large financial support, they did not go to the production side, but rather to the consumer side.
Study Problem
The study's problem stems from the following questions:
Is there support from the Agricultural Bank of Iraq for the agricultural sector
Are there efficient and advanced policies from the Agricultural Bank that help increase agricultural productivity
Has the increase in agricultural productivity in the agricultural sector impacted Iraq's gross domestic product
Study Hypothesis
The hypothesis stems from the following assumptions:
Agricultural Bank support for the agricultural sector is very low
Agricultural Bank policies have not kept pace with developments and have therefore been ineffective in influencing the decline in agricultural productivity
Even if the agricultural sector has achieved an increase, it is a very low increase in the GDP
Study Importance
The Agricultural Cooperative Bank plays a fundamental and effective role in influencing the agricultural sector, as it covers basic needs, which contributes to increasing agricultural productivity on the one hand and achieving government policy objectives on the other hand, in terms of meeting actual market needs and reducing imports, which drain billions of dollars annually. In addition to accustoming the local Iraqi consumer to imported agricultural products, which would greatly affect the farmer's ability to market his production, thus incurring losses that would cause him to be unable to farm again.
Theoretical Framework
Agricultural Bank Financial Support Policies: The existence of agricultural policy financing is special and unique. It originated and developed in the modern economic system but serves traditional agriculture. It is produced in a market economy and is established and operated by the government. It exists in most countries and has different characteristics and development patterns compared to commercial financing. Given its fundamental position and versatility, agriculture undoubtedly requires government support and protection to ensure its sustainable development. As the primary means of supporting agriculture, agricultural policy financing integrates government control, bank credit and financial allocation into a comprehensive and effective system. It has been widely established to support and protect agriculture in various countries, especially in many developed countries. Agricultural policy financing has played a key and indispensable role in the rural financial market and has gradually become the core of the overall framework of the national agricultural support and protection system [1]. Support to agriculture is largely driven by the public sector, which has established institutional support in the form of agricultural research, extension, commodity marketing, input supply and land use legislation to accelerate agricultural development. Private sector involvement, however, is not limited to domestic or foreign direct financing and portfolio investments, but also includes sponsoring agricultural research at universities, capacity building for farmers, and, most importantly, providing financing to agribusinesses. International governmental and non-governmental agencies, including the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), also contribute through on-farm and off-farm support in the form of financing, input supply, strengthening the technical capacity of other support institutions, etc. Macroeconomic policies that tend to promote sector growth include credit-oriented fiscal policies, monetary and exchange rate stabilization policies and fiscal policies laden with agricultural incentives, including tax exemptions for agribusinesses and duty-free import of agricultural machinery [1]. Two distinct groups of agricultural support policy channels can be distinguished. The first group is output support. A significant portion of output support is a direct intervention in the market price. Intervention in the product price, also called Market Price Support (MPS), takes the form of setting the unit price of the agricultural product and charging it at that price. The second group of agricultural support policies is support that does not interfere with the product price: direct income support and indirect income support. Simply defined, direct income support refers to income payments that are independent or somewhat dependent on production. Direct income policy, which has begun to find more application by abandoning market price support at certain rates, aims to support producers without interfering with the price of agricultural products. In this system, product prices will be formed in the market and thus production will be determined according to market signals, preventing price distortions caused by mismatches in supply and demand [2].
Agricultural finance is defined as one of the branches of agricultural economics that seeks to provide capital and sources of obtaining it for agricultural investment. It also looks for credit institutions that can provide capital to farmers and the foundations that these institutions rely on in borrowing to ensure success in their businesses. It also looks at the costs of the borrowing process and its economic effects on farmers or on the economic and agricultural structure in general and the different types of loans. Agricultural finance can also be defined as “one of the ways through which the capital necessary for the agricultural production process can be raised, such as purchasing or reclaiming land, constructing buildings, purchasing all agricultural inputs, purchasing animals and also paying debts for agricultural services provided by others for this activity” [3]. Agricultural finance can be considered a branch of agricultural economics that deals with the provision and management of banking services and financial resources related to individual farm units. Agricultural finance deals with the financial aspects (micro and macro) of farm operations in the economy. Agricultural finance is also defined as the economic study of the acquisition and use of capital in agriculture. Therefore, it deals with the demand for and supply of capital in the agricultural sector of the economy [4].
The agricultural support policies implemented aim to strengthen a country's economy and find solutions to the problems of the agricultural sector. Therefore, the determinants of agricultural support policies may vary from country to country. While some countries establish policies regarding food safety for agricultural products, others implement agricultural policies to increase the sector's contribution to the country's economy. Today, the biggest challenge in agriculture is ensuring the continuity of production. Agricultural activities have been used as a policy tool by governments for almost every period in terms of their contribution to employment rates, national income and foreign trade [5]. From a global perspective, both developed and developing countries have established agricultural policy financing to support and protect their agricultural industries. In general, most developed countries have established relatively complex and fully functional agricultural policy financial institutions or systems. For example, the United States government created a systematic agricultural financial system.
Agricultural Production and Productivity
The basic concept of agricultural production is considered based on the current status of priority irrigation projects, farmers' intentions to farm and the country's agricultural and economic situation [2]. In the economic literature, aggregate productivity refers to the amount of output obtained from given levels of inputs in an economy or sector. Productivity is one of the two primary sources of greater income flows; the other is savings, which allow for the employment of more inputs [6]. Improving agricultural productivity is essential for achieving global food security. Increasing agricultural yields relieves pressure on land, while increasing agricultural labor productivity in poor countries boosts income and stimulates broader economic development. By reducing the amount of land, labor and other resources required to produce food, increasing agricultural productivity makes food cheaper and more abundant and has a powerful impact on poverty reduction. Productivity is typically defined as the ratio of a measure of output to a measure of input use. At the most fundamental level, productivity measures the amount produced by a target group (a country, industry, sector, farm, or virtually any target group) given a set of resources and inputs. Large gaps in agricultural productivity have important implications for understanding aggregate productivity. With minimal assumptions about production technologies, they point to a misallocation of labor across sectors, especially in developing countries. By reallocating workers out of agriculture, where the value of their marginal product is low and into other activities, aggregate output would increase even without increasing the amount of inputs used in production. These gains could be particularly large in developing countries, where agricultural productivity gaps and labor shares in agriculture are the largest [7].
Practical Analysis
Agricultural Initiatives in Iraq: Some researchers believe that agricultural initiatives mean taking specific action to correct a faltering trend, meaning that agricultural initiatives are an emergency. Because the Iraqi agricultural sector has been in a state of decline since 2003, there is a need for rapid steps to develop this sector. Hence, agricultural initiatives. The agricultural sector in Iraq witnessed a complete and comprehensive collapse in all its aspects and components after 2003, due to security and political problems and the deliberate neglect of this sector by successive governments. Iraq has become a rentier state dependent on oil revenues to cover most consumer expenditures on various goods and items, with agricultural commodities constituting the largest portion. Furthermore, the agricultural sector has not been included in investment due to ongoing neglect and rampant corruption within state institutions. This lack of clear strategies and an economic vision to rescue this sector from its deteriorating situation has been reflected in its weak contribution to the gross domestic product, resulting in significant economic losses. Therefore, supporting and financing this sector represents the cornerstone of economic development in Iraq. The following sections will address the agricultural financing process and its role in developing this important sector [3].
Table 1 shows that the Agricultural Bank provides loans and support based on more than one source, not just one source (initiatives, the Agricultural Bank’s own resources). The first column shows the amounts the bank receives from the initiative after presenting it to farmers, which has taken an upward trend due to the increase in the amount of funds provided by the agricultural initiatives. The situation is similar with the funds received from the bank’s own loans, which are increasing, showing the amount of funds provided by the bank itself to farmers. As for the position of the initiative in the third column, it shows the amount of funds that were not repaid during the study period by farmers upon receiving the initiative funds, which reached 128 billion dinars in the year 2022. This shows the problems facing farmers on the one hand and banking problems on the other hand, while the overdue debts reached the equivalent of 186 billion dinars in the year 2022. Those concerned with agricultural affairs in Iraq almost agree that the repercussions this sector inherited from previous policies were not easy to address or deal with quickly and directly, given the capabilities available to the Iraqi state after the departure of the dictatorship. In light of the confusion that the country witnessed later, treatments were not available, due to the security situation, the increase in spending on the security sector and the need for service sectors for more funds, most of which require huge sums of money and plans that take a lot of time. Therefore, the passage of more time means more decline for this sector. When the new Iraqi state strengthened after breaking the back of terrorism and the floating strife in 2007, work began on what was called the “Agricultural Initiative” with the aim of creating immediate treatments that would instill hope in the souls of farmers, farmers and workers in the agricultural sector and restore confidence as much as possible in this sector. However, the lending cycle did not enter into effect until 1/8/2008 and the allocation for it from the total amount of the agricultural initiative, which amounted to 500 million dollars in that year, was 240 million dollars about 288 billion dinars, distributed among five funds: support for small farmers 30 million dollars-livestock wealth 40 million dollars-mechanization and modern irrigation methods 40 million dollars - palm tree development 30 million dollars - major projects $100 million. The lending session was one of a series of sessions in which the agricultural initiative's leaders focused their efforts on supporting workers in the agricultural sector, primarily alongside plans initiated by relevant authorities to revive the agricultural sector.
Table 1: Amounts Collected from the Initiative, those Received from Self-Resources and Outstanding Debts for the Period 2003-2022 for Agricultural Initiative Loans
| Years | Amounts collected from initiative loans (1( | Received from own resources (2( | Suspended from initiative loans (3( | Delinquent debts (4( |
| 2003 | 1036977 | 0 | 0 | 2000631 |
| 2004 | 29336 | 0 | 0 | 6267788 |
| 2005 | 566204 | 8810779 | 42611998 | 12860118 |
| 2006 | 3350395 | 4182864 | 2092952 | 12206573 |
| 2007 | 9043496 | 20353515 | 1822289 | 14128900 |
| 2008 | 14948972 | 64155456 | 2421868 | 16146103 |
| 2009 | 232987808 | 119888976 | 7329033 | 16248476 |
| 2010 | 36218469 | 11806000 | 8146220 | 18954447 |
| 2011 | 63798707 | 15222454 | 14115013 | 19026674 |
| 2012 | 69353881 | 14475953 | 43433937 | 1625354 |
| 2013 | 139024822 | 19381578 | 52123790 | 1814662 |
| 2014 | 136835578 | 27671289 | 114004222 | 6338280 |
| 2015 | 103584606 | 20287986 | 78572776 | 17317401 |
| 2016 | 69480270 | 19979767 | 26550837 | 54997303 |
| 2017 | 76242403 | 30054076 | 71902688 | 20834423 |
| 2018 | 85770336 | 20658029 | 82218063 | 18292729 |
| 2019 | 23292812 | 11421826 | 31109021 | 110816396 |
| 2020 | 39060044 | 13335332 | 42357960 | 119922162 |
| 2021 | 52505709 | 22444419 | 12476197 | 178441038 |
| 2022 | 55411614 | 17271862 | 128344398 | 186677736 |
Source: Ministry of Planning, Central Statistical Organization
However, the results of the lending session quickly contributed to accelerating the implementation of the strategic plans, having achieved the interim objectives of returning local products to the markets and revitalizing the agricultural sector. In order to continue to devote the successes achieved by the agricultural initiative loans with the aim of improving the reality of the local product plant and animal towards achieving the minimum level of food security for the country, work continued in the lending cycle and more money was allocated to the five specialized lending funds that were created within the state’s general budget for the years 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012. The total amounts allocated to the agricultural initiative loans that the Agricultural Bank received and entered into the capital cycle of the specialized funds were 288 billion dinars in 2008, 244.8 billion dinars in 2009, 288 billion dinars in 2010, 288 billion dinars in 2011, 280 billion dinars were received, 201.6 billion dinars in 2012, 150 billion dinars were received, so the total allocation became 1,310.4 billion dinars were received and 1,250.8 billion dinars were received by 2012.
The impact of the lending cycle on the agricultural landscape became clear two years after the launch of specialized fund loans, with agricultural products reappearing in local markets after imported products had previously dominated the overall supply of agricultural products.
Vegetable products that rely on protected agriculture and greenhouses have clearly emerged in the volume of supply, with many governorates recording tangible growth in production quantities or self-sufficiency. The experiment of growing tomatoes in greenhouses has witnessed great success since 2009 in various regions of the country, increasing supply and subsequently significantly reducing prices. This prompted the Ministry of Agriculture to ban the import of vegetable products in order to protect local products and consolidate these successes. It also encouraged loans to tomato paste production plants in these regions to ensure the marketing of the product and give farmers greater confidence in their work. On the other hand, agricultural initiative loans have been able to push towards a significant improvement in the level of red meat production and the levels of demand due to the rise in income levels among all Iraqis in the last three years indicate an increase in the level of consumption.
Loans Granted to the Agricultural Sector
Agricultural loans are one of the means by which agricultural producers can obtain the financial resources they need, whether to meet their consumption or production needs. Therefore, agricultural lending is part of agricultural financing. It can be defined as the provision of funds from someone who owns them to someone who can use them, on the condition that they repay it after a period of time. This means borrowing capital to finance agricultural activity. Agricultural lending is an economic process that aims to raise farmers' economic and social living standards by providing them with loans and helping them increase their income from agricultural production, thereby increasing their ability to repay their loans. Lending operations must be conducted scientifically, according to a strategic plan that is compatible with the nature of economic and social conditions, to avoid potential harm to the producer and society: [3].
During the years prior to 2003, the Agricultural Bank was registered as a public company pursuant to Law No. 22 of 1997. According to this decision, it is considered a self-financed economic entity fully owned by the state, enjoying legal personality and financial and administrative independence. The Agricultural Bank continued its various operations until 2003. At this stage, its business expanded and it was no longer specialized in financing the agricultural sector. Instead, it was permitted to engage in other activities.
The Table 2 shows that: Short-term agricultural loans range between 12-14 months and include amounts used to purchase seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, as well as amounts used to prepare and prepare the land for cultivation, or amounts paid as the cost of harvesting.
Table 2: Agricultural Bank Loans Granted by Loan Type for the Period 2000-2020
Years
| Number of Transactions | Short-Term | Medium-Term | Number of Medium-Term Transactions | Number of Long-Term Transactions | Long-Term Loans |
| 2000 | 1259 | 1420000 | - | - | 4283 | 19988861 |
| 2001 | 987 | 1266625 | - | - | 5079 | 15971005 |
| 2002 | - | 1252269 | - | - | - | 45772320 |
| 2003 | - | 12592269 | - | - | - | 53197320 |
| 2004 | - | 10442728 | 6216788 | 1708 | - | 19988861 |
| 2005 | 4325 | 12390230 | 8255203 | 2412 | 14575 | 159710005 |
| 2006 | 19321 | 59056936 | 9067872 | 2159 | 12016 | 45772320 |
| 2007 | 18283 | 59356004 | 10607760 | 3111 | 45461 | 53197320 |
| 2008 | 20878 | 85686044 | 18182067 | 3195 | 101556 | 57643493 |
| 2009 | 39644 | 111328217 | - | --- | 105022 | 40460466 |
| 2010 | 3987 | 37261566 | - | - | 12715 | 170408866 |
| 2011 | 6344 | 46486000 | - | - | 13517 | 233478321 |
| 2012 | - | 209118652 | - | - | - | 280600863 |
| 2013 | - | 187828675 | - | - | - | 130022450 |
| 2014 | 3292 | 65907466 | - | - | 5396 | 202652000 |
| 2015 | 3352 | 54031516 | - | - | 3683 | 336148634 |
| 2016 | 3097 | 50391892 | - | - | 3902 | 1881207613 |
| 2017 | 1020 | 40810784 | - | - | 1398 | 77427134 |
| 2018 | 203 | 3760850 | - | - | 295 | 17245000 |
| 2019 | - | 71851975 | - | - | - | 1402888216 |
| 2020 | - | 70076610 | - | - | - | 1367599885 |
| 2021 | - | 8739505 | - | - | - | 129115845 |
| 2022 | - | 4297656 | - | - | - | 104776844 |
Ministry of Planning/Central Statistical Organization, Statistical Abstract 2011. Agricultural Statistics
These loans are of utmost importance, especially in developing countries with small production units. It is noted that the trend was upward until 2009 and even the number of transactions was increasing. This demonstrates the actual need for land reclamation and expansion in the agricultural sector, as well as government support and policies aimed at increasing agricultural yields due to market demand and population growth. However, in 2010 and 2011, the number of agricultural transactions and loans declined. This was due to a decrease in the Agricultural Bank's allocations for agricultural loans. However, in 2012 and 2013, the banking sector tended to increase short-term loans due to the great need for these loans. Loan grants then fluctuated between increases and decreases and the number of transactions had no impact on the increase or decrease in loan values. In some years, we find a decrease in the number of transactions and an increase in loan grants and vice versa. To increase the efficiency of agricultural operations, the trend is toward short-term loans, as they ensure the use of various production tools and supplies that meet needs.
Long-term loans include the process of reclaiming agricultural land and establishing large agricultural projects. The repayment period exceeds 10 years. If these loans are used efficiently, they will help achieve a major leap in development, increase agricultural production and achieve agricultural economic efficiency. It is noted from the table that the Agricultural Bank's long-term loans were not in a single direction, but rather fluctuated between increases and decreases. This was not due to a lack of need in the years of decline, but rather due to the Agricultural Bank's ability to meet the need for these loans due to the significant expansion in agricultural operations and the establishment of large projects. There was an investment trend by investors to obtain the high profits generated by large agricultural investments.
Medium-term loans help increase production, expand development projects and increase income. The time period ranges between 12 months and 10 years. They include the purchase of agricultural machinery, equipment and machinery, the purchase of agricultural land, the purchase of animals, the establishment of orchards and land reclamation. It is noted from the table above that, due to the inability to obtain a complete set of data, we find, given the availability of current data, the trend towards these loans reflects an actual need for them. The researcher sees, according to what the Agricultural Cooperative Bank has presented, the Farmers' Loan Fund, as a specialized fund for farmers and cultivators. It grants loans to all farmers who practice the agricultural profession or wish to practice it and have completed the eighteenth year of age. It is not covered by life insurance and up to 70 years of age, it is not covered by insurance. The investor must be an investor in the land and provide proof of ownership or a lease contract. Loans are granted (greenhouses - field crops-establishing honey beehives-establishing and maintaining a high-oil olive grove-opening an agricultural office-potatoes (autumn and spring), corn (white and yellow), protected tomatoes-summer crops-sunflowers - and without service fees or interest. The bank's contribution to all loans is 80%, except for greenhouse loans, which are 100% and are prepared by an accredited government company.
Accordingly, those responsible for reviving the agricultural sector had to search for immediate solutions alongside long-term strategic plans with the aim of revitalizing the agricultural sector and the Iraqi countryside. Thus, work was done with specialized funds with the aim of providing loans to workers in the agricultural sector and in First and foremost, farmers and agriculturalists. These funds were launched on August 1, 2008, with an allocation of 288 billion dinars distributed among five funds:
The Livestock Support Fund
The Mechanization and Modern Irrigation Fund
The Farmers and Agriculturalists Fund
The Major Projects Fund
The Palm Tree Development Fund
Allocations to these funds continued over five consecutive years within the general budget, until these funds were able to grant loans exceeding 2 trillion dinars. These loans have had a profound impact in revitalizing the agricultural sector and bringing life back to rural Iraq, alongside the role of other activities and programs supporting the agricultural sector, implemented by sectoral entities.
Agricultural Production and Agricultural Credit
Agricultural production plays an important role in diversifying income and meeting local food demand. However, many problems hinder agricultural production, including infrastructure collapse, water shortages, desertification and other factors that further reduce production levels.
Credit facilities have the ability to enhance or stimulate other factors of production by influencing latent, potential, or underutilized capacities. Credit acts as an incentive that stimulates growth and progress in the planned or expected direction. Therefore, the greater the flow of capital in the form of credit, the more prosperous the economy will be to move along its intended path. Agricultural credit is granted to farmers to support the cultivation and harvest of crops, which may be overdrafted, short-term, medium-term, or long-term, depending on the project's maturity and growth period [8].
The Table 3 shows the following:
From the Table 3, it is clear that there were two stages in the value added of the agricultural sector to the GDP. The first stage was the pre-2003 stage, in which the value added ranged between 8-20%, which was the highest percentage of the agricultural sector's contribution to the GDP. This demonstrates the effective role of this sector and the efficient policies followed in the success of agriculture, as well as the great importance it places on the government, whether through loans provided or through the facilities it provides to farmers. On the other hand, the poor living conditions during this stage were not sufficient to meet the basic needs of the Iraqi individual, which prompted him to turn to agriculture, focus on this sector and achieve benefits that compensate for the lack of salaries. After that, with the exception of the year 2004 in which the percentage was 10%, the percentage was not higher than 8%. This was due to the government’s neglect of this sector and the tendency of individuals to search for better investment opportunities than agriculture and to achieve higher financial gains... In addition to the obstacles and policies that were followed by the government that were not supportive of the farmer, which pushed people to migrate from rural areas to the city and work there, which increased the problems that this sector suffers from
Agricultural production during the period 1990-2003 took an upward trajectory, as government policies and programs played a significant role in influencing local economic sectors, including the agricultural sector. While Iraq was subjected to an economic blockade during the 1990s, government banking policies supported local agricultural production by various means in an attempt to mitigate the impact of this blockade
However, after 2003, these policies completely changed, with the state moving toward a policy of economic openness, adopting a market economy system and opening the doors to foreign trade without restrictions, supported by a financial abundance in the national income. This policy negatively impacted agricultural activity, as local production declined in quantity and quality and cultivated areas declined. Instead of achieving self-sufficiency, the country began to import approximately 60% of its needs. Correcting this abnormal situation requires a rational role for the state's agricultural products in many aspects and areas, including: providing seeds, fertilizers and pest control at subsidized prices; regulating and controlling the import of agricultural products that can be produced locally; assisting in the marketing of local production; facilitating lending operations; introducing more modern production technologies at subsidized prices; and encouraging various individual agricultural initiatives. The table above shows that the percentage of cultivated land did not change significantly during the study years, ranging between 19 and 22 percent during the study years 1990-2003. However, agricultural production achieved a significant and noticeable increase during the same study period after 2003. Until the end of the study period, the percentage did not change significantly. During the years of declining production, the percentage of cultivated area did not change. This indicates that the data on production increases and decreases were not accurate. The increase in bank loans, in light of declining production and a reduced cultivated area, indicates that the loans are directed towards consumption and have not affected production or cultivated area. These loans include loans for car purchases for farmers, loans for rural women, loans for the development of Iraqi children and small farmers and other loans that did not affect agricultural production or even cultivated area. Therefore, self-sufficiency in cultivated products was not achieved. It must be noted that the events that took place after 2003 in Iraq affected credit and made it significantly better compared to the years before 2003, including improved security and the spread of education among different social classes. This had a great impact on individuals’ acceptance of credit, encouraging individuals who save money and offer their capital. Also, individuals who need capital to expand their various projects found the opportunity before them to increase their production and consequently increase their income and profits. Then, relationships appeared or emerged between the creditor and the debtor, which are based on trust between the two parties
Econometric Framework
The study variables will be examined and the impact of each variable, agricultural production and cultivated area, on agricultural loans provided by the Agricultural Bank for the period 1990-2023, will be determined using the following multiple regression equation:
y = c+bx_1+bx_2
Where,
Y: Dependent Variable (Agricultural Bank loans)
X1: Independent Variable (cultivated area)
X2: Independent Variable (agricultural production)
1: Stability of Variables
Given that the number of observations ranged between 30 observations and in order to achieve more accurate results, the data was converted to quarterly data after being annual. The number of observations reached more than 90 observations for the study sample and they were examined to ensure that the observations were free of problems according to the Dickey-Fuller test. The following results were reached (Table 4).
From the data in Table 4, it is clear that the time series contains a unit root, according to the Dickey-Fuller test, at the level for all study variables. When comparing the calculated values at the significance level 1%, 5%, 10%, it becomes clear that they are larger than their table values. Therefore, we reject the alternative hypothesis indicating the stability of the time series of the variables and accept the presence of a unit root for the time series values. The time series were unstable at the level of a constant, or in the presence of a constant and a general trend, or without a constant or a general trend, which led to conducting the test at the first difference of the variables. As for the first difference, we find that all variables achieve stability with the exception of x2, which achieved stability in the second difference, which turned out to achieve stability and the absence of a unit root for the variables. We reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis, as we note that the calculated value is smaller than the table values at the levels shown in the Table 4, as well as the rest of the values.
Table 3: Shows the Total Agricultural Production, Cultivated Area and Credit Granted by the Agricultural Bank (Million Dinars). Agricultural Sector Production at Current Prices (Billion Dinars)
| Years | Agricultural sector production | Agricultural sector added value to GDP (%) | Percentage of cultivated area to total area | Number of employees (thousand workers( | Agricultural Bank credit |
| 1990 | 46 | 8 | 21.10 | 1046 | 13 |
| 1991 | 66 | 15 | 22.01 | 1096 | 109 |
| 1992 | 22 | 8.4 | 21.83 | 1128 | 411 |
| 1993 | 49 | 10.3 | 22.56 | 1193 | 451 |
| 1994 | 333 | 11 | 21.37 | 1225 | 451 |
| 1995 | 1378 | 13.5 | 20.80 | 1276 | 12 |
| 1996 | 1208 | 14.4 | 19.80 | 1293 | 25 |
| 1997 | 1276 | 16.4 | 19.77 | 937 | 5407 |
| 1998 | 1868 | 15.9 | 19.43 | 936 | 1450 |
| 1999 | 2482 | 15.2 | 19.43 | 990 | 5198 |
| 2000 | 2327 | 20.5 | 19.41 | 1017 | 21408 |
| 2001 | 2863 | 20.9 | 19.86 | 1042 | 17237 |
| 2002 | 3512 | 18.5 | 19.86 | 1116 | 28295 |
| 2003 | 2486 | 8.3 | 19.86 | 1193 | 27808 |
| 2004 | 3693 | 10.9 | 20.21 | 1469 | 70033 |
| 2005 | 5064 | 6.9 | 20.55 | 1266 | 99517 |
| 2006 | 5568 | 5.8 | 20.89 | 1304 | 229764 |
| 2007 | 549.4 | 4.9 | 18.07 | 1343 | 319164 |
| 2008 | 57168.1 | 8.6 | 18.07 | 1442 | 391929 |
| 2009 | 6132.6 | 4.4 | 19.68 | 1452 | 167284 |
| 2010 | 8679 | 6.5 | 19.72 | 1446 | 249138 |
| 2011 | 9185 | 4.9 | 20.41 | 1461 | 545267 |
| 2012 | 4941.4 | 4.7 | 21.35 | 1504 | 562111 |
| 2013 | 5081.6 | 4.9 | 21.35 | 1558 | 344831 |
| 2014 | 12682.0 | 4.1 | 21.44 | 1555 | 230478 |
| 2015 | 5017.8 | 3.9 | 21.44 | - | 862769 |
| 2016 | 7832.0 | 2.9 | 21.48 | - | 608243 |
| 2017 | 7421.6 | 2.8 | 21.53 | - | 615904 |
| 2018 | 6322.7 | 3.7 | 21.58 | - | 1189853 |
| 2019 | 8766.7 | 6.0 | 21.74 | - | 1499147 |
| 2020 | 13130.9 | 3.0 | 21.70 | - | 1569167 |
| 2021 | 11912.8 | 3.2 | - | 10780 | 1548736 |
| 2022 | 10922.8 | 1.6 | - | - | 1476760 |
| 2023 | 948857.6 | 2.8 | - | - | 1349237 |
Unified Arab Economic Report
Table 4: Stability of Variables Results
| The variable | Stability | T Calculated | Table T | p | ||
| 1% | 5% | 10% | ||||
| X2 | Second Team | -11.39 | 11.48. - | 2.88. - | 2.57.- | 0.0000 |
| X1 | First Team | 2.47. - | 2.58. - | 1.94. - | 1.64. - | 0.0135 |
| Y | First Team | 2.52. - | 2.58. - | 1.94. - | 1.64. - | 0.0118 |
Source: Prepared by the researcher based on the outputs of the E-Views program
Therefore, we judge the stability of the time series and this is what the probability that it was It has achieved 0.0000 which is less than the 5% significance level.
Statement of the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable. After conducting a stationarity test, filtering the data and obtaining a true value that yields more accurate results, a multiple autoregression test was conducted and the results were obtained according to the following equation:
DY = 13871.508845 - 1.3049151802*DX2 - 2.90565411996*DX1
The results of the multiple linear regression above reveal an inverse relationship between both (cultivated area and agricultural production) and loans provided by the Agricultural Bank. That is, the more loans provided by one unit, the lower agricultural production and even the cultivated area. This is contrary to the logic underlying agricultural policy in Iraq. This is because most loans provided go toward consumer purposes, not production or even agricultural ones. Some loans are provided to farmers for the purpose of purchasing cars, while others are provided for the purpose of purchasing homes. This is due to the cultural environment of farmers in Iraq, who live in an environment where social norms are central. Therefore, we find a significant degree of default in loan repayment by farmers in the table above. We find that the Agricultural Bank grants loans to all those who practice or intend to practice agriculture. Other types of loans are provided as consumer loans, which may not be accepted by farmers simply by name loans for establishing honey beehives, loans for greenhouses, loans for opening agricultural offices and other loans provided without service fees or interest. As for R-squared = 0.094, it shows the weakness or limitation of the effect and confirms that the loans go not to the productive aspects but to the consumer aspects, while f-statistic = 4.40 confirms the significance of the model and the success in choosing the statistical model (Table 5).
Table 5: The Effect of Independent Variables on the Dependent Variable
| Prob | t-statistic | Variable |
| 0.0322 | 2.1653 | DX1 |
| 0.0119 | 2.550 | DX2 |
Prob (f-statisstic) = 0.0055, f-statistic = 4.40, R-squared = 0.094
There was no statistical impact of loans provided by the Agricultural Bank on increased production or the cultivated area
The agricultural sector's contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) did not significantly decline. It was estimated to have reached 1% before 2003. This demonstrates the extent of neglect and the failure to implement efficient policies capable of reforming the agricultural sector. Although bank loans and substantial financial support were provided, they were not directed toward production, but rather toward consumption
The cultivated area did not increase above 21%, despite the increased initiatives and even loans provided by the Agricultural Bank.
The amount of funds provided by the Agricultural Bank increased due to the existence of support policies for agriculture, particularly after 2003, due to the improvement of the economic, political and even security environment.
Short-term agricultural loans range from 12-14 months and include funds used to purchase seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, as well as funds used to prepare and prepare the land for cultivation, or funds paid as harvesting costs. These loans are of utmost importance
Long-term loans include the process of reclaiming agricultural land and establishing large agricultural projects. The repayment period exceeds 10 years. If these loans are used efficiently, they will help achieve a significant leap in development, increase agricultural production and achieve agricultural economic efficiency
The volume of non-performing loans by farmers has reached approximately 186 billion Iraqi dinars. This demonstrates the weak ability of farmers to repay, as well as the weak ability of banks to follow up on loans. Even the loan-granting policy is weak and incapable of achieving its objectives
Recommendations
Based on the results of the standard statistical analysis, which demonstrated the weak impact of loans on the cultivated area on the one hand and on increasing production on the other, the bank should adopt a rational policy to increase agricultural production and cultivated area, provide loans and select productive aspects when granting loans
The lending policies provided by the Agricultural Bank were inefficient and there is no effective monitoring and follow-up that would lead to increased efficient production and a reduction in the focus on consumption. Given that there are loans for the purpose of purchasing cars for farmers, supporting marriage for farmers and other consumer loans that are ineffective, an effective policy should be implemented to monitor the volume of loans provided by the Agricultural Bank
A comprehensive and effective study should be conducted to ensure that the cultivated area in Iraq has not increased, especially since all conditions are favorable and conducive to increasing agricultural production. Plans should be developed to increase the percentage to more than 25% in a five-year plan. 4- Short-term loans, which cover farmers' basic needs (seeds, fertilizers and pesticides), have not achieved sustained growth and have fluctuated between high and low levels. However, in recent years, they have not been sufficient to increase cultivated area or even production
Long-term loans have taken an upward trajectory and should be supported and increased with the introduction of effective and efficient support policies
The volume of non-performing and non-repayable loans is very large. This is due to the Agricultural Bank's policy of providing loans to every farmer, even if they are inefficient. It also provides loans to those seeking to farm. These policies are chaotic and have not supported the agricultural sector; quite the opposite
The bank operates primarily or predominantly in a traditional manner, ignoring technology in granting loans and loan follow-up. Even five-year loan policies and plans, as well as knowledge of achieved production, are virtually non-existent
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