Significance of the Research

This research derives its importance from the fact that it addresses one of the most important problems facing educational policymakers in Iraq. This research addresses the high demand for educational services and maximizes the benefits of these services, given their real impact on the local labor market and their significant contribution to the growth of Iraq's gross domestic product.

Research Objective

The research aims to develop realistic projections of the actual deficit in educational services in the Iraqi economy. This is intended to control future demand and address the enormous numbers that represent the actual demand for these services, which are greatly struggling to meet actual needs.

Research Problem

The research is based on the actual problem of the significant shortage in education services in Iraq. This sector suffers from a very significant problem: the decline in the level of services provided. This has prompted individuals to seek alternatives, and these alternatives are available outside Iraq. This necessitates a significant increase in household spending, burdening individuals with services that are supposed to be a local government priority. This has significantly impacted the volume of income transferred abroad, which has increased at a very rapid rate during the study period.

Research Hypothesis

The research is based on the hypothesis that the lack of services (infrastructure) in the education sector has a negative impact on economic development, and interest in developing this sector is the key to launching modern development and keeping pace with the great development in this sector globally.

Introduction

The Iraqi economy has inherited a heavy legacy of deteriorating economic, social, and environmental conditions with exorbitant costs. This legacy is particularly evident in all aspects of its service sector, the primary driver of sustainable human development. This has led to a state of human insecurity in all its dimensions. Poverty levels have risen, and the number of people living below the poverty line has increased, despite Iraq being awash in oil. It is currently one of the poorest Arab countries, having moved from the fourth-worst country in the world in 2006 to the second-worst in 2007 in terms of stability and poverty, surpassed only by Sudan today, and ahead of Somalia and the Republic of Chad [1].

Unemployment has become one of the most serious problems that Iraq has faced and is facing. The increasing number of unemployed people constitutes a waste of human resources, in addition to the dire economic and social consequences that result from it. The issue of poverty is closely linked to the increasing levels of unemployment, and the relationship between them constitutes a major challenge to sustainable human development in Iraq. This economic and social situation has been reinforced by the lack of services provided to satisfy the basic needs of all members of society by the state, which has turned it into extreme poverty, and unemployment has become a structural problem in the Iraqi economy. 

Chapter One: Sustainable Development and Economic Growth: The Interrelationship

This bitter reality has its causes, which are a cumulative combination of past mistakes and policies and the requirements of transition in the present, including 2

• The material losses suffered by the Iraqi economy over the past decades for numerous reasons, including successive wars, the economic blockade, and most recently the circumstances of war and occupation

• Mismanagement of service sector facilities and institutions, the lack and decline of investment, capital accumulation, export trade, and the decline in administrative efficiency in service provision, led to the collapse of these facilities and institutions, such as electricity, water, transportation, education, and health. In electricity and water services, the value of the gross domestic product declined to less than 0.5% of GDP, and electricity generating capacity declined from 9,225 megawatt-hours before 1990 to less than half of this capacity during the transitional period, despite the population increase from 1990 to 2007, reaching more than 27 million people during that year

• The numerous wars Iraq fought and the large expenditures on the military apparatus, which accounted for 90% of public expenditures, led to a decline in investment allocations for public services

• The administrative apparatus has failed to find ways to address the growing and diverse problems of public services, due to the weakness of supervisory staff, random appointments, and a lack of reliance on competence and expertise. Favoritism and administrative and financial corruption have spread in this sector and other economic sectors. Lack of responsibility, neglect, and weak oversight by government agencies and public oversight have exacerbated the crises in the public services sector [2]

First: The Relationship Between Sustainable Development and Economic Growth

The Human Development Index reflects an integrative perspective for assessing human development. By selecting three important elements from among the basic needs (health, education, and income), this index focuses on the progress achieved by countries in all their categories, from rich to poor. The Human Poverty Index, on the other hand, assesses human development from a deprivation perspective, i.e., the way the poor and deprived live. While human development focuses on the progress achieved in a society as a whole, human poverty focuses on the condition and progress of the most deprived groups in that society. When the Human Development Index measures the progress achieved in a country in human development indicators, the Human Poverty Index uses the same basic human development dimensions, but the difference between them is similar to the difference between GDP and income-based poverty measures 

According to this income-based perspective, it would be illogical to say that since GNP is indeed based on income information, any income-based measure of poverty must be a substitute for GNP. Nor would it be illogical to suggest that the availability of GNP data as an indicator makes the quest for a measure of income poverty redundant. The GNP and income poverty measures use income information from different perspectives: the GNP perspective is aggregate, while the income poverty measure focuses specifically on the income poor (UNDP, 2000: 85). Both indices use the wealth of information associated with human development, such as characteristics of human life that go beyond the scope of income information. However, while the HDI uses these characteristics from an aggregate perspective, the HPI must use them from a deprivation perspective. From the above, it is preferable to evaluate the Human Development Index through the Human Poverty Index, because the implicit feature of adopting this index is to direct attention to the civilizational gap that the country must bridge in order to reach the desired level, although some prefer to use the Human Development Index as an indicator of measurement because it expresses only the achievements and improvements that have occurred.

Second: Factors Determining Economic Growth

The past centuries have witnessed unprecedented phenomena and problems, resulting in a revision of all economic theories. It is worth noting a number of these:

• The oil crisis of the 1970s highlighted the dangers of the misuse and over-exploitation of non-renewable natural resources, environmental pollution, and the resulting natural disasters and environmental hazards From here, the relationship between the spread of the concept of sustainable human development and industrialization becomes apparent, as its emergence came as a response to the dangers posed by the depletion of primary resources and environmental pollution within industrially advanced countries

• The failure of development policies pursued by developing countries, which resulted in a massive increase in external debt, a decline in productivity, particularly in the industrial sector, and a growing gap between various social classes, leading to the emergence of malnutrition and famine

• The collapse of the socialist bloc's systems in Europe demonstrated that development is impossible without the voluntary involvement of individuals in actions that take into account their true needs, leverage their potential, and improve their conditions

• The globalization of the economy and the steady growth of liberalism have deepened disparities within societies and between international communities, weakened state authority at the expense of the interests of the poor, and encouraged the emergence of ethnic and racial conflicts

In 2002, the largest global summit convened by the United Nations in its history, the Second Earth Summit, was held in Johannesburg, South Africa. More than 100 heads of state and government attended, along with approximately 65,000 participants representing governmental delegations, international organizations, and civil society organizations from the four corners of the globe. Issues such as poverty reduction and food scarcity were discussed.

Fresh water, the future of energy resources, the preservation of biodiversity, the phenomenon of climate change, the right of poor peoples to development, and the responsibility of rich countries for environmental sanitation and addressing the human-caused destruction, devastation, and degradation of planet Earth, so that it becomes habitable for present and future generations [3]

The model of sustainable human development values human life in and of itself. It does not value life simply because people can produce material goods, however important that may be. Nor does it value one person's life more highly than another's. No newborn child should be destined to live a short or miserable life simply because they were born into the wrong class, country, or gender. Development must enable all individuals to maximize their potential and utilize those potentials to the best possible extent in all economic, cultural, and political spheres. The universality of life's demands is the common thread that links today's human development demands with tomorrow's development imperatives, particularly the need to preserve and regenerate the environment for the future. Protecting the environment is a moral imperative to guarantee opportunities for future generations similar to those enjoyed by previous generations. This guarantee is the foundation of sustainable development. But sustainability is meaningless if it means sustaining the miserable and destitute life opportunities. The goal cannot be to perpetuate human deprivation, nor should those less fortunate today be deprived of the attention we are prepared to extend to future generations today.

The Second Topic: Defining and Coding the Data and the Statistical Method for Analyzing 

The nature and type of data available when studying any phenomenon require the researcher to adopt a statistical method for its analysis. In this section, we find that data on economic indicators, which include (number of primary schools, number of secondary schools, number of universities, number of graduating students) as variables (response, dependent, or dependent [Y's]), and the indicator of public expenditure on education as variables (explanatory or independent [X's]), require the researcher to adopt a multiple regression analysis method to determine the relationship between economic indicators and the variables influencing them. Real data was used for health indicators, so the sample size is 19. In light of the above, the data will be coded as follows:

Based on what is presented in the table above, a multiple regression model is defined for each of the social indicators identified in the table above, as follows:

Regarding the education indicator, its analysis method is identical to the analysis method for the health sector, using a simple linear regression model, with each axis having its own axis, as shown in Table (1) and the following.

Table 1: Encoded Budget Expenditure and Education-related Social Indicators

Source: Prepared by the researcher

Y_((2,2)i)= β_(0)+ β_2 X_((2)i)+U_i

Y_((2,3)i)= β_(0)+ β_2 X_((2)i)+U_i

Y_((2,4)i)= β_(0)+ β_2 X_((2)i)+U_iY_

i: represents the value of the ith observation (year i) of the 

ith observation of the variable (response, dependent, or dependent) according to the growth rate of the economic indicator of interest, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Indicators of Public Spending and Spending on the Education Sector for the Period 2004-2024

Table 3: Trends in Universities, Schools, Students, and Graduates (2004–2024)

Source: Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperation, statistical aggregates for various years.

• X_i's: the values ​​of the ith observations for each of the explanatory variables (balance indicators) defined in Table 

• U_i: represents the error term Random

        Before conducting statistical analysis of the data using regression analysis, when the regression model is significant, using regression analysis, the following tests must be performed:

First: Testing The Normal Distribution of the Response Variable Data

One of the basic assumptions of the linear regression model is that the random errors are normally distributed, i.e.

U_i~ N(0,σ^2) ,∀ i=1,2,….16

        This means that there is no problem of heteroscedasticity. Since the response variable Y_i in the regression model is the sum of two quantities, the first of which 

β_(0) + β_1 X_(i1)

        It is a constant estimate because the explanatory variables are non-random and therefore do not have any distribution. This is one of the assumptions of the multiple or simple linear regression model. The second quantity is random.

        U_i represents a normal distribution. Therefore, the response variable is a random variable with a normal distribution, with an arithmetic mean of:

〖E(Y〗_i)= β_(0)+ β_1 X_(i1)

and a variance of:

〖V(Y〗_i)= σ^2

The failure to achieve variance constancy (difference in variance values) for random errors leads to the problem of heteroscedasticity of variance for the linear regression model. This means that the response variable Y_i does not have a normal distribution, which leads to the inefficiency of the ordinary least squares (OLS) method in estimation, as it produces estimates with high variances. This, in turn, affects the efficiency of the estimation equation to be extracted to predict the phenomenon under study. To test that the observations of the response variable are normally distributed, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality test is performed, which tests the following hypothesis: Null hypothesis H_0: Data for the response variable Normally distributed. The alternative hypothesis H_1: The data of the response variable are not normally distributed. Hypothesis H_0 is accepted when the value of Sig.≥ ∝=0.05. Therefore, the (OLS) method can be used in estimation. Otherwise, hypothesis H_1 is accepted, which means that the data of the response variable are not normally distributed. Therefore, the regression model suffers from the problem of heteroscedasticity. To overcome this problem, another estimation method is used, which is the Weighted Least Squares (WLS) method instead of the (OLS) method.

Section Three: Measuring the Impact of Spending on the Education Sector on the Number of Primary Schools, the Number of Secondary Schools, the Number of Universities, and the Number of Graduate Students:

The continuous increase in spending on education is one of the major responsibilities facing many economists concerned with organizational and economic affairs. This increase is not limited to one country alone. Moreover, this spending has become an increasing proportion of the state budget and national income compared to spending in other economic and social sectors. This proportion varies from one country to another, depending on its level of advancement and development. Spending on education is an investment for the individual and society because it contributes to the country's growth and progress. Building an advanced educational production base and providing suitable job opportunities contributes to raising the country's gross domestic product (GDP). It is a tool for development when individuals are able to contribute to increasing the GDP through the development of their advanced scientific capabilities, based on the level of education they have received.

In Iraq, education is a fundamental factor in societal progress and a right guaranteed by the state for all Iraqis, as stipulated in Article (34) of the 2005 Constitution.

Spending on education is an investment in human capital that contributes to achieving economic development and progress, because it is impossible to imagine the continuation of any educational system unless there are financial allocations that guarantee its continuity, as indicated in the data in the table that illustrates this.

Ministry of Education, Department of Statistics, Annual Statistics Publications

We note a decrease in the amount of spending on education in the year 2005, which amounted to 1,472,788.2 million dinars, with a spending rate of 5.58%, compared to the year 2004, which amounted to 1,802,610.9 million dinars, due to the deterioration of the security situation and also the focus on military expenditures.

While the period 2006-2014 witnessed an increase in the size of the general agreement on education, as it reached about 2,051,914.3 million dinars in 2006 and a percentage of 5.28%, and the increase continued until the year 2014 as the size of public spending on education reached 2,621,688 million dinars and a percentage of 8.80%, and the increase in the size of public spending on education is attributed to the oil revenues resulting from the export of crude oil.

The fluctuation in the size of public spending on education continued. In the year 2015, the size of public spending on education decreased to reach 9,874,555.6 million dinars, at a rate of 14.02%, as the reality of education in Iraq witnessed a major collapse. The UNESCO report indicated that 2 million children are out of school, in addition to 14 thousand teachers who were displaced due to the sectarian and ethnic war that affected several areas of Kirkuk, Diyala, the Baghdad Belt, Salah al-Din and Anbar. These statistics were established before the liberation of the governorates from ISIS and their displacement. Also, the illiteracy rate in Iraq increased, as their number reached 6 million citizens, or approximately 20% of the population of Iraq [4]. In the year 2017, there was a decrease in the size of public spending on education to reach 3,907,899 million dinars, at a rate of 5.17%, and in the year 2019, the size of public spending on education increased to reach 5,053,840 million dinars, at a rate of 4.52% compared to the year 2018, recording 4,121,195 million dinars, at a rate of 5.09%, while the size of public spending on education witnessed in the year 2020 to record 3,991,824 million dinars, at a rate of 5.24%, due to the double crisis the health crisis and a sharp decline in oil prices).

It is noted from Table 4 according to the statistical analysis that there is no significant effect relationship of the variable (X2) (spending on the education sector) on the response variable Y2,2 (number of secondary schools). This is evidenced by the fact that the value (Sig = 0.903) for the F-test is greater than the value 0.05, in addition to the insignificance of the t-test for the parameter related to the variable of spending on education, as shown in the table above. The previous economic analysis on school buildings for primary education applies to the reality of school buildings for secondary education, where there is a great shortcoming in this aspect and the presence of dual schools and the inefficiency of investment spending to avoid the large shortage in the number of schools compared to the increasing number of students enrolled in secondary education. Therefore, we have shown that there is no significant effect of spending in the education sector on the increase in school buildings for secondary education, and that the number of schools was not affected by spending after 2003, and that the previous buildings still have the largest share. This is indicated by the value of β0 appearing in the statistical analysis of the model and its positive sign. This is another indication of the failure to achieve a sustainable social development index in Iraq and the inability to advance it despite the spending and strategies put in place by the government in this regard.

Table 4: Results of the Analysis of the Impact of Spending on the Number of Secondary Schools

Source: Prepared by the researcher based on the results of the SPSS program

a. Dependent Variable: d_2^nd

According to the statistical analysis, it is noted from Table 6 that there is a significant effect relationship for the variable (X2) (spending on the education sector) on the response variable Y2,3 (number of universities), as the value (Sig = 0.026) for the F test was smaller than the value (0.05) and with a coefficient of determination (0.258%) that explains the changes that occurred in the response variable. In light of the t-test for the β_2 parameter for the Y2,3 regression model, the estimated equation is adopted as it is significant. Therefore, the estimated equation proven in the table above is relied upon to predict the number of universities in Iraq. Despite the significance of the model, the effect is not proportional to the size of spending in this sector in the years of financial abundance from 2004 to 2013. It is also noted that the tendency to respond to the change in spending is weak, as shown in the table of parameter estimates and the estimated equation for predicting the change Y2,3 and the very weak effect expressed by the estimated equation. The reason for this is the weakness of investment spending, the procrastination of projects in this area, the waste and corruption that prevail in government projects in general, the lack of continuity of implementation due to oversight obstacles that prevent investments from being completed in the event of indicators of corruption or the halting of projects due to contractors’ failure and the lack of good legal cases. This matter is considered a major obstacle to achievement. Once again, spending on education has not succeeded in fulfilling its role in achieving another social goal in sustainable social development despite all the efforts made in this field.

Table 5: ANOVA table after conducting statistical tests for linear regression model problems

a. Dependent Variable: Number of universities. b. Weighted Least Squares Regression - Weighted by w_no_unvi. c. Predictors: (Constant), Spending on education

Table 6: Parameters' Abilities and t-tests for their Significance

a. Dependent Variable: : Number of universities. b. Weighted Least Squares Regression - Weighted by w_no_unvi. Y_2,3 Estimated equation for predicting the variable.  Y ̂_((2,3)i)=20.181+(1.224E-6)X_(2 i)

• We note that the increase in spending on the education sector from the total public expenditures indicates interest in education, as the absolute value of spending on education was close until 2016, where we note the decrease in spending on education in 2017 as a result of the decrease in public spending due to the austerity policy during the period (2017 and beyond)

• It is noted that the development indicators for the education sector are declining. Despite the increase in the number of students, this has not been commensurate with the increase in the number of school buildings, and despite the spending, it has not shown a positive impact on the education sector

• Regarding the education sector, we conclude that there is no significant relationship between spending on the education sector and the response indicators (the number of primary schools, the number of secondary schools, and the number of university graduates), while there was a significant relationship with a weak direct effect between spending on the education sector and the number of universities, and this indicates poor spending policy in the Iraqi education sector

• Most economic literature indicates the existence of a strong relationship between increasing government spending and achieving sustainable development, and this was indicated in most of the sources that dealt with this topic, except in the Iraqi economy, the growth of public spending was directed towards operating spending (wages and salaries), which constitutes more than 60% of the volume of operating public spending, which indicates the reality of the actual decline in the overall performance of indicators that concern sustainable development

Recommendations

• Increasing attention to the education sector and its three pillars, which suffer from continuous decline, and that the decrease in allocations and rights negatively and clearly affects educational performance in Iraq, whether in the education sector or the teaching sector. Schools suffer greatly from the lack of school buildings, poor equipment, and the increasing number of students in them, which negatively affects the education sector, while the higher education sector suffers from the poor condition of its buildings, equipment, science laboratories, and educational methods due to poor allocations and spending on this important sector

• Continuous interest in the educational sector in Iraq and determining the actual need through building various schools (elementary, kindergarten, middle and    secondary) to control   the drain on individual incomes by individuals to meet the increasing demand for education sector services (the private 
  sector) that has entered this sector forcefully through opening schools that do not meet the actual needs of this sector

• Expanding the reality of higher education and moving towards private government education in parallel with public education. This will contribute to achieving real competitiveness between the two sectors, ensuring the provision of the best types of educational services to meet the needs of the labor market for trained and scientifically qualified cadres, in addition to paying attention to the private sector, represented by universities and institutes owned by the private sector, to expand vertically by creating specializations that serve the requirements of the modern labor market, and in a manner that is compatible with the size of successive developments in the communications and modern technology sectors

1. Karim, Abdullah Abdul Khaliq. “Sustainable development and the relationship between environment and development.” 1st ed., Unity Studies Center, Arab Future Books Series, no. 13, 2008.

2. Ghadban, Fouad, and Fatima Al-Zahra Al-Barkani. “Urban sustainability for strategic planning for a sustainable urban project.” 1st ed., Dar Al-Radwan for Publishing and Distribution, 2017.

3. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Human development report 2002. UNDP, 2002.

4. Al-Shamaa, Salam. “The education system in Iraq is approaching collapse.” Al-Arab Newspaper, 12 September 2017.