Research Article | Volume 5 Issue 2 (April - June, 2024)
Under a Creative Commons license
Open Access
Received
Nov. 9, 2023
Revised
Nov. 19, 2024
Accepted
March 19, 2024
Published
March 30, 2024
Abstract

ABSTRACT:

This research aims to analyze population and demographic changes in Iraq during the period from 2015 to 2020, based on available data analyzed in the practical aspect. This period constitutes a sensitive and crucial time frame due to the social and political transformations witnessed in Iraq. The analysis revolves around factors influencing population growth and demographic changes in Iraq during this period. The data reveals a significant increase in the population, with rising birth rates and declining death rates. This demographic shift reflects improvements in healthcare and living conditions, indicating the impact of social transformations and developments in marriage and family rates. 

Urbanization plays a substantial role in Iraq's population, influencing the geographical distribution of resources and infrastructure. Spatial analysis shows an increasing trend of population moving towards urban areas, opening doors to new challenges and opportunities in urban planning and the provision of essential services. The data also carries important insights for the future, as it can be used to predict future demographic changes and their impact on development.

Based on the results, it is recommended to direct development efforts towards achieving a balance between population and economic growth, including enhancing infrastructure and improving social services. Overall, this research contributes to clarifying the complex relationship between demographic changes and development in Iraq, providing a conceptual framework that can aid in strategic decision-making and achieving sustainable development in the future.

Keywords
Population
Demographic
Statistical Tools
Fertility
Mortality.
Important Note:

Key findings:
This research analyzes population and demographic changes in Iraq from 2015 to 2020, revealing a significant population increase with improved healthcare and rising birth rates. Urbanization influences resource distribution, posing challenges and opportunities in urban planning. The data offers insights for future demographic predictions, emphasizing the need for balanced development to sustainably manage growth and enhance social services.

 

What is known and what is new?
The known aspect of this abstract is the analysis of population and demographic changes in Iraq, focusing on factors influencing growth and urbanization. The new contribution lies in the specific examination of the period from 2015 to 2020, highlighting the impact of social and political transformations on population dynamics and urban development, providing insights for strategic decision-making and sustainable development planning.

 

What is the implication, and what should change now?
The implication of this abstract is the need to address the significant population growth and demographic changes in Iraq, emphasizing the importance of balancing economic growth with infrastructure development and social services. Changes should focus on strategic planning to manage urbanization challenges, predict future demographic shifts, and ensure sustainable development by aligning population dynamics with economic progress and social welfare initiatives.
 

INTRODUCTION:

Iraq, with its long and rich history, undergoes significant demographic and economic transformations that greatly impact its economic development. Analyzing population and demographic changes over a specific period is crucial for understanding the current and future trends of the country, directing policies and strategies towards achieving sustainable development. This research aims to explore the changes that occurred in the population of Iraq from 2015 to 2020 and understand their impact on the country's economic aspects. The analysis focuses on varying birth and death rates, population distribution, and how these changes can influence development direction and future planning.

The data emphasizes the importance of awareness and monitoring of fertility indicators as variables linked to fertility and mortality levels for a comprehensive understanding that informs policy-making alongside demographic conditions [1]. Through studying the case of Iraq, valuable lessons can be extracted on how to deal with challenges arising from population and demographic changes. Analyzing this data will be key to understanding the relationship between population growth and development, constructing development strategies that enhance the quality of life for citizens, and achieve economic and social sustainability.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH:

The significance of this research lies in understanding population and demographic changes in Iraq from 2015 to 2020. Several aspects highlight the importance of studying the research, particularly in the realm of population planning. Through population planning, a better understanding of demographic changes can be achieved, facilitating the planning of public services. Additionally, examining economic and social policies helps comprehend the relationship between fertility rates, mortality rates, and economic and social growth, contributing to the development of effective policies.

Furthermore, the research holds importance in the context of public health. It provides insights into how changes in mortality and fertility rates contribute to improvements in public health and guide healthcare efforts. Overall, the study is crucial for informed decision-making in population-related planning, public services, economic and social policies, and public health initiatives.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES:

The research aims to analyze and understand population and demographic changes in Iraq, providing valuable contributions to policies and planning in various areas through the following objectives:

  1. Demographic Change Analysis: Understand how fertility and mortality rates have changed in Iraq from 2015 to 2020 and analyze these changes.
  2. Exploration of Relationships: Analyze the relationships between fertility rates, mortality rates, and potential impacts on these relationships.
  3. Prediction of Future Changes: Use the analysis to predict how demographic changes will evolve in the future.
  4. Policy Guidance: Provide advice and recommendations to governmental entities and international organizations based on the results to guide policies and ongoing programs in Iraq.

 

RESEARCH HYPOTHESES:

The following hypotheses have been formulated to understand the relationships resulting from population and demographic changes:

  1. Changes in fertility rates in Iraq may be associated with variations in the population growth rate during the period from 2015 to 2020?.
  2. The decline in fertility rates in Iraq during the mentioned period may be linked to changes in mortality rates?.
  3. Are fertility rates in Iraq statistically correlated with mortality rates during the years from 2015 to 2020?.
  4. The decline in fertility rates can be used as an indicator to understand population changes in Iraq during the specified period?.
  5. Have economic changes in Iraq been influenced by the decline in fertility rates, and did they impact demographic changes during the period from 2015 to 2020?.
REVIEW OF PREVIOUS RESEARCH:

Dyson, T., & Moore, M. (1983) [2]: They conducted a study discussing the relationship between kinship structure, female autonomy, and population behavior and fertility in India. The study utilized demographic data to analyze the impact of social and cultural factors on reproductive behavior. 

Caldwell, John C. (1983) [3]: Caldwell presented a comprehensive theory to explain the decline in fertility rates in societies. The study discussed factors influencing the achievement of a decline in fertility rates and demographic transformations. 

Bloom, David E., Canning, David, Sevilla , Jaypee (2004) [4]: The researchers studied the relationship between health and economic growth using a production function model. The study illustrated how health and population impact economic capacity. 

Mason, Andrew (2003) [5]: Mason studied the experience of East Asia regarding population changes and their impact on economic development. The analysis provided insights into demographic shifts and their effects on economic growth.

Montgomery, Mark R., Stren, Richard, Cohen, Barney, Reed, Holly E. (2003) [6]: They presented a collection of papers and research in their book on the impact of demographic changes on cities and the resulting transformations in high-income areas.

Lee, Ronald, Mason, Andrew (2010) [7]: Explored the relationship between fertility, human capital, and economic growth during the demographic transition. The study highlighted the impact of demographic factors on the economy. 

Aghion, Philippe, Howitt , Peter, Bursztyn, Leonardo (2009) [8]: Presented a book to understand the processes of economic growth and the impact of population dynamics and innovation on them. 

Firebaugh, Glenn, Goesling, Brian (2004) [9]: Conducted research on global income changes and explanations for reducing economic justice among countries. Researchers 

Karadsheh, M & Hasan, S.I& Al-Mawali ,N.R.(2019) [10]: Mentioned in their study that modernization and development in societies usually lead to changes in the number and composition of populations. For example, economic and social progress may increase the population size and alter age structures and family dynamics. Additionally, advancements in health and environmental policies impact population health and demographic outcomes.

CONCEPT OF DEMOGRAPHY:

Demography is the study of populations and their characteristics, including quantity, geographical distribution, and qualitative features such as gender, age, religion, education, and marriage. It aims to understand population changes and their causes, serving as a branch of sociology and human geography. Its scope includes the study of size, distribution, density, composition, races, and growth factors like birth, death, and migration rates. It also seeks to comprehend economic and social conditions and geographic distribution. Population studies explore factors such as the number of children in families, mortality rates, migration reasons, and geographical distribution. This knowledge is essential for identifying current and future human needs. Demography forms the foundation for other social sciences, playing a crucial role in understanding rapidly changing global social phenomena and providing fundamental information for researchers in this field [11-14].

Demographic Transition in Population Societies:

Demographic transition, also known as demographic shift, refers to the historical shift in birth and death rates from high to low levels. It precedes a decline in both death and birth rates, resulting in rapid growth termed "transitional growth," which is higher than growth before and after the transition. The concept of demographic transition originated in the French demographic world [15], but its integrated formulation was developed by the American economist [16]. Notestein divides demographic transition into three distinct stages based on their historical sequence:

  1. Traditional System (Pre-Transition): This stage represents the traditional demographic system before the transition, characterized by high birth and death rates.
  2. Transition Stage: The transition stage involves a shift from high birth and death rates to lower levels. It marks the period of rapid population growth.
  3. Modern System (Post-Transition): The post-transition stage is characterized by low birth and death rates, leading to a stabilized population. The formulation and conceptualization of demographic transition provide a framework for understanding historical changes in population dynamics and have been influential in demographic and economic studies [17, 18].

Fertility:

Fertility is defined as actual reproduction and is expressed by the number of live births. The primary sources for studying fertility are birth statistics, specifically live births, as records of deceased infants are not included in fertility studies. A live birth, according to the World Health Organization's definition, is the birth of a baby, regardless of the duration of pregnancy, exhibiting any signs of life such as breathing, heartbeat, or clear muscle movement in the hands or feet. Fertility is considered a crucial measure in population studies, influenced by various factors, including economic, social, political, and individual factors. Simultaneously, fertility plays a role in the continuity and renewal of societies [11, 19]. Several measures gauge fertility, with key indicators including the crude birth rate, general fertility rate, age-specific fertility rate, children per woman ratio, total fertility rate, and the gross reproduction rate (crude).

Mortality:

Mortality, in the context of demographic changes, is defined as events leading to the loss of an individual's life. Measuring and analyzing deaths as part of demographic changes helps understand demography and the social, health, and economic developments in a given society. This includes concepts such as the death rate and the leading causes of death. High death rates pose multiple negative challenges to economic development. The elevated rates result in significant loss of human resources, representing substantial investments from both the public and private sectors in areas like education and skill development. Particularly noteworthy in this context is the role of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS), leading to a pronounced reduction in social and economic fabric, especially in countries significantly affected by the pandemic [20, 21].

The consequences of high death rates also have adverse effects on health and human development, with increased likelihood of disease and sometimes leading to weak physical and mental growth. This negatively impacts the economic capabilities of individuals and communities. In the family context, the death of a parent can reduce educational opportunities and limit future prospects for children. The death rate is measured by calculating the ratio of the number of deaths during a specific annual period to the population at the midpoint of this period. This indicator is associated with several factors that play a crucial role, such as the quality of healthcare, the quality and quantity of available food, and the educational levels of the population. These factors play a vital role in reducing child mortality rates, with their effects varying from one society to another [18].

Population Growth:

Population growth refers to the variation in the size of a population over different periods, either increasing or decreasing. This concept is related to both population inflation and the population crisis, connected to population movement since populations are not in a constant state but characterized by movement influenced by demographic phenomena such as births, deaths, marriages, and migration [8].

The rates of natural population growth depend on changes in birth rates and death rates, which are, in turn, influenced by various factors [7]. Population growth is a topic that must be considered in demographic studies because the population is characterized by a constantly changing nature. Population growth can be defined as the natural increase, represented by the difference between total births and total deaths, considering net migration, which is the difference between incoming and outgoing migration. This rate contributes to estimating the time required for the concerned region to reach a specific population size in the future [22, 23].

The "population growth rate" can be defined as a measure that calculates the rate of natural growth, in addition to the net change (increase or decrease) resulting from migration between different regions [24]. Population growth also refers to the sustainable movement resulting from life activities over a specified period, including births as a factor for an increase and deaths as a factor for a decrease. The term "natural increase" refers to this condition, which not only encompasses population growth but also represents their decrease positively. Additionally, the impact of migration enhances this balance, where incoming migration is considered a factor for increase, while outgoing migration represents a factor for decrease [25].

The definition of population growth emphasizes that the natural tendency for people is to increase and reproduce. If this increase is the result of reproduction, it is called "natural increase." However, if it results from migrants coming from other regions, it is considered "artificial increase") [26]

Practical Aspect :

The analysis will encompass all data obtained for the years 2015-2020 pertaining to population and demographic changes. According to Table (1), the data represents fertility rates, mortality rates, reproduction rates, and life expectancy rates for the years (2015-2020).

Table No. (1)

Represents data concerning fertility rates, mortality rates, reproduction rates, and life expectancy rates for the years (2015-2020).

YearTotal Fertility RateTotal Reproduction RateNet Reproduction RateAverage Age at ChildbearingLife Expectancy at Birth (Male)Life Expectancy at Birth (Female)Life Expectancy at Birth (Total)Infant Mortality RateUnder-Five Mortality Rate
20154.082.011.9529.17174.9733138
20164.021.981.9329.171.375.273.230.637.5
20173.961.961.9129.171.475.473.430.237
20183.91.931.882971.775.673.629.836.5
20193.861.911.8628.971.975.873.829.436
20203.821.891.852172.176.174.12935.5

 

We will now find the simple linear regression and the regression coefficients for the data mentioned in Table (1), which represent the years and the total fertility rate. Using statistical tools and the MATLAB programming language, after executing the code, we obtain the following results:

The regression coefficient (slope) and the intercept value have been determined, describing the relationship between each individual year and the total fertility rate. We can now use this information to understand the trend in the changes of the fertility rate over the years and quantify it.

The time coefficient (slope): -0.0863333333333331 

The intercept: 175.74

These results illustrate the coefficients for linear regression, where the time coefficient represents the rate of change in fertility rates over the years, and the intercept coefficient indicates the baseline fertility rate at the beginning (in 2015). The results obtained from linear regression analysis provide an interpretation of the relationship between time and fertility rate. We will interpret the results according to the points below:

 

Time Coefficient (Slope): The value of the time coefficient is (-0.0863), indicating the rate of change in fertility rates over the years. The negative value suggests a decrease in the fertility rate at an annual rate of (-0.0863) units.

Intercept: The intercept value is (175.74), representing the baseline fertility rate at the start in 2015. 

 

Based on the results, it is evident that the fertility rate was high in 2015 (intercept), but it decreased at an annual rate of (-0.0863) units (time coefficient) starting from that year. This means that there is a decline in the fertility rate over the years.

 

Referring to Table (1), these data provide an overview of changes in fertility and mortality over six years. They are valuable for monitoring demographic trends and understanding their impact on the population. In summary, the results indicate a decrease in fertility rates over the years.

 

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